Egypt Cup Mon 9 Nov 2026 · Petrosport Stadium Full time

Wadi Degla

WDDLW

0–0

Half-time 0–0Pens 2–3

Kahraba Ismailia

WDLDW

59%P(1)23%P(X)18%P(2)

λ home: 1.60
λ away: 0.75
Σλ total: 2.36
P(over 2.5): 42%
P(BTTS): 53%
Modal score: 1–0 15.2%

Wadi Degla vs Kahraba Ismailia prediction & xG model: Wadi Degla to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Wadi Degla v Kahraba Ismailia: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipWadi Degla to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Wadi Degla v Kahraba Ismailia are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Wadi Degla (home)	1.66	0.93	0.75	1.17
Kahraba Ismailia (away)	1.38	1.05	0.66	0.95

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.93 × 0.75 ≈ 1.17

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.11	60%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.36	40%
Blended total λ	2.36	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.60, λ_away = 0.75

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Wadi Degla λ = 1.60

020.1%

132.2%

225.9%

313.8%

45.6%

5+2.4%

Kahraba Ismailia λ = 0.75

047.2%

135.4%

213.3%

33.3%

40.6%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Wad \ Kah012345+

09.57.12.70.7··

115114.31.1··

2129.23.40.9··

36.54.91.8···

42.62.00.7···

5+1.10.8····

Σ home-win cells: 57.8%
Σ draw cells: 24.8%
Σ away-win cells: 17.4%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 15.2%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Wadi Degla	39.9%	66.0%	48.9%	58.8%
X Draw	31.2%	20.0%	26.6%	22.8%
2 Kahraba Ismailia	28.9%	14.0%	24.5%	18.4%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.105 → 10.5% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Wadi Degla pick	58.8%	1.70	1.85	54.1%	+8.8%
X · Draw	22.8%	4.39	3.40	29.4%	-22.5%
2 · Kahraba Ismailia	18.4%	5.44	3.70	27.0%	-31.9%
Double chance
1X	81.6%	1.23	1.17	85.5%	-4.5%
X2	41.2%	2.43	1.91	52.4%	-21.4%
12	77.2%	1.29	1.25	80.0%	-3.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Wadi Degla	76.2%	1.31	–	–	–
DNB Kahraba Ismailia	23.8%	4.20	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	67.2%	1.49	1.40	71.4%	-5.9%
Under 1.5	32.8%	3.05	2.75	36.4%	-9.9%
Over 2.5	41.9%	2.39	2.25	44.4%	-5.8%
Under 2.5	58.1%	1.72	1.62	61.7%	-5.8%
Over 3.5	22.3%	4.49	4.00	25.0%	-10.9%
Under 3.5	77.7%	1.29	1.22	82.0%	-5.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	53.5%	1.87	2.10	47.6%	+12.3%
BTTS no	46.5%	2.15	1.67	59.9%	-22.3%
Half-time
HT 1	40.3%	2.48	–	–	–
HT X	44.2%	2.26	–	–	–
HT 2	15.5%	6.46	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickWadi Degla to win

Probability58.8%

Fair odds1.70

Best odds1.85

EV per unit+8.8%

EV = 0.588 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.088 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.104 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Wadi Degla	Kahraba Ismailia
Sequence	WLDDWL	WDLDWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-2-2	3-2-1
Points per match	1.33	1.83
Goals for / match	1.00	1.83
Goals against / match	1.17	1.17
Over 2.5	33%	67%
BTTS	50%	67%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Wadi Degla 59%, draw 23%, Kahraba Ismailia 18%.

Form

Wadi Degla have two wins from their last six (W L D D W L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Zamalek SC. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Kahraba Ismailia, last six: W D L D W W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Masar. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Head to head

Last meeting (May 2026): Wadi Degla 1–2 Kahraba Ismailia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Wadi Degla 1.60 · Kahraba Ismailia 0.75 · total 2.36. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 53%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Wadi Degla to win, probability 59%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Wadi Degla 1–0 Kahraba Ismailia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.