- λ home
- 1.17
- λ away
- 1.79
- Σλ total
- 2.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.8%
Turku PS vs Ilves prediction & xG model: Ilves to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Turku PS v Ilves: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipIlves to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Turku PS v Ilves are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 37 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turku PS (home) | 1.66 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| Ilves (away) | 1.38 | 1.24 | 0.80 | 1.38 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.91 × 0.70 ≈ 1.06
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.43 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.70 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.17 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.17, λaway = 1.79
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 24.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 52.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Turku PS | 28.3% | 24.0% | 29.2% | 26.2% |
| X Draw | 28.4% | 17.0% | 25.2% | 20.5% |
| 2 Ilves | 43.3% | 59.0% | 45.6% | 53.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.075 → 7.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Turku PS | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.19 | 31.3% | -16.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.89 | 3.69 | 27.1% | -24.5% | |
| 2 · Ilves pick | 53.4% | 1.87 | 2.04 | 49.0% | +8.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 46.6% | 2.14 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -20.7% | |
| X2 | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.0% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Turku PS | 32.9% | 3.04 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ilves | 67.1% | 1.49 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -8.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.4% | 5.17 | 5.09 | 19.6% | -1.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -10.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.9% | 2.45 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -1.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -14.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -2.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -10.2% | |
| BTTS no | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.53 | 39.5% | -4.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.9% | 4.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 38.7% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.534 × 2.04 − 1 = +0.089 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.085 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Turku PS | Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLDD | WDWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 53% against 26%.
Form
Turku PS have zero wins from their last six (L L L L D D). Latest: 1–5 away at Lahti. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Sequence for Ilves: W D W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to SJK. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 4: Turku PS 0, Ilves 4, drawn 0, 2.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Turku PS 0–3 Ilves. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Turku PS 1.17 · Ilves 1.79 · total 2.96. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Ilves to win, probability 53%, odds 2.04 v fair 1.87. Most probable score: Turku PS 1–2 Ilves. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Sep 2026Turku PS0–3Ilves
- 20 Jul 2026Turku PS1–3Ilves
- 13 Jun 2026Ilves1–0Turku PS
- 27 May 2026Ilves1–0Turku PS
More Friendlies Clubs predictions
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IF Brommapojkarna1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Turku PS vs Ilves?
The Model pick is Ilves to win with a model probability of 53, priced around 2.04 by the bookmakers.
What are the Turku PS v Ilves probabilities?
Turku PS win 26%, draw 20%, Ilves win 53%.
What is the most probable score for Turku PS vs Ilves?
Turku PS 1–2 Ilves is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Turku PS vs Ilves?
Turku PS 1.17, Ilves 1.79 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Turku PS vs Ilves?
Friday 13 November 2026, 12:30 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.