Japan J League Cup Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Noevir Stadium Full time

Vissel Kobe

DWWWD

0–1

Half-time 0–0

Machida Zelvia

DWDWD

36%P(1)22%P(X)41%P(2)

λ home: 1.23
λ away: 1.34
Σλ total: 2.57
P(over 2.5): 47%
P(BTTS): 56%
Modal score: 1–1 12.6%

Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (40 and 39 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Vissel Kobe (home)	1.66	1.25	0.39	0.80
Machida Zelvia (away)	1.38	1.26	0.59	1.03

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.25 × 0.39 ≈ 0.80

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	1.83	60%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.57	40%
Blended total λ	2.57	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.23, λ_away = 1.34

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Vissel Kobe λ = 1.23

029.1%

135.9%

222.2%

39.1%

42.8%

5+0.9%

Machida Zelvia λ = 1.34

026.3%

135.1%

223.5%

310.4%

43.5%

5+1.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Vis \ Mac012345+

07.7106.83.01.0·

19.4138.43.81.3·

25.87.85.22.30.8·

32.43.22.11.0··

40.71.00.7···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 34.3%
Σ draw cells: 26.5%
Σ away-win cells: 39.1%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 12.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Vissel Kobe	27.0%	34.0%	39.9%	36.5%
X Draw	34.0%	18.0%	28.0%	22.2%
2 Machida Zelvia	39.0%	48.0%	32.1%	41.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.114 → 11.4% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Vissel Kobe	36.5%	2.74	2.25	44.4%	-17.9%
X · Draw	22.2%	4.50	3.20	31.3%	-28.9%
2 · Machida Zelvia	41.3%	2.42	2.80	35.7%	+15.7%
Double chance
1X	58.7%	1.70	1.33	75.2%	-21.9%
X2	63.5%	1.57	1.62	61.7%	+2.9%
12	77.8%	1.29	1.30	76.9%	+1.1%
Draw no bet
DNB Vissel Kobe	46.9%	2.13	–	–	–
DNB Machida Zelvia	53.1%	1.88	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	72.5%	1.38	1.30	76.9%	-5.8%
Under 1.5	27.5%	3.64	3.40	29.4%	-6.5%
Over 2.5	47.4%	2.11	2.00	50.0%	-5.3%
Under 2.5	52.6%	1.90	1.80	55.6%	-5.3%
Over 3.5	26.2%	3.81	3.50	28.6%	-8.1%
Under 3.5	73.8%	1.36	1.28	78.1%	-5.6%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	55.9%	1.79	1.73	57.8%	-3.2%
BTTS no	44.1%	2.27	2.00	50.0%	-11.9%
Half-time
HT 1	26.8%	3.73	–	–	–
HT X	43.4%	2.30	–	–	–
HT 2	29.7%	3.36	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability55.9%

Fair odds1.79

Best odds1.73

EV per unit-3.2%

EV = 0.559 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Vissel Kobe	Machida Zelvia
Sequence	DWWWDL	DWDWDW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-2-1	3-3-0
Points per match	1.83	2.00
Goals for / match	1.67	1.33
Goals against / match	1.17	0.17
Over 2.5	67%	33%
BTTS	67%	17%
Clean sheets	33%	83%
Failed to score	17%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

No clear favourite in the grid – Vissel Kobe 36%, draw 22%, Machida Zelvia 41%.

Form

Sequence for Vissel Kobe: D W W W D L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Urawa. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Machida Zelvia, last six: D W D W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Vissel Kobe 0–0 Machida Zelvia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Vissel Kobe 1.23 · Machida Zelvia 1.34 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 56%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Vissel Kobe 1–2 Machida Zelvia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.