- λ home
- 1.74
- λ away
- 2.22
- Σλ total
- 3.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–2 8.2%
Rumilly Vallières vs Saint Etienne prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Rumilly Vallières 23% · draw 19% · Saint Etienne 58%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Rumilly Vallières v Saint Etienne: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Rumilly Vallières v Saint Etienne are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (10 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rumilly Vallières (home) | 1.66 | 1.87 | 0.71 | 2.20 |
| Saint Etienne (away) | 1.38 | 1.46 | 1.12 | 2.25 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.87 × 0.71 ≈ 2.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.45 | 60% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.24 | 40% |
| Blended total λ | 3.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.74, λaway = 2.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 49.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 8.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rumilly Vallières | 39.1% | 18.0% | 12.6% | 23.1% |
| X Draw | 20.0% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| 2 Saint Etienne | 40.8% | 63.0% | 69.2% | 57.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rumilly Vallières | 23.1% | 4.33 | 7.30 | 13.7% | +68.5% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.25 | 5.05 | 19.8% | -3.9% | |
| 2 · Saint Etienne | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -23.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.1% | 2.37 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +26.4% | |
| X2 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -18.5% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.24 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -8.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rumilly Vallières | 28.5% | 3.51 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Saint Etienne | 71.5% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -4.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.9% | 7.21 | 4.95 | 20.2% | -31.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -0.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | 2.43 | 41.2% | -25.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.4% | 2.02 | 2.17 | 46.1% | +7.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -17.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.71 | 58.5% | +8.5% | |
| BTTS no | 36.6% | 2.74 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -27.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.5% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.3% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 39.2% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.634 × 1.71 − 1 = +0.085 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.119 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rumilly Vallières | Saint Etienne |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLL | WLWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 3.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 58% against 23%.
Form
Rumilly Vallières have four wins from their last six (W W W W L L). Latest: 4–2 away at Saint-Priest. 3.3 goals a match in that spell.
Saint Etienne have five wins from their last six (W L W W W W). Latest: 2–0 at home to Laval. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rumilly Vallières 1.74 · Saint Etienne 2.22 · total 3.96. High total: over 2.5 69%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.71 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Rumilly Vallières 1–2 Saint Etienne. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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CannesFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rumilly Vallières vs Saint Etienne?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.71 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rumilly Vallières v Saint Etienne probabilities?
Rumilly Vallières win 23%, draw 19%, Saint Etienne win 58%.
What is the most probable score for Rumilly Vallières vs Saint Etienne?
Rumilly Vallières 1–2 Saint Etienne is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rumilly Vallières vs Saint Etienne?
Rumilly Vallières 1.74, Saint Etienne 2.22 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Rumilly Vallières vs Saint Etienne?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT – Coupe De France.