- λ home
- 0.95
- λ away
- 2.41
- Σλ total
- 3.36
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–2 10.1%
Chambéry vs Grenoble prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Chambéry v Grenoble: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Chambéry v Grenoble are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.36 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.36 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.95, λaway = 2.41
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 69.7%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Chambéry | – | 15.0% | 10.1% | 13.0% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| 2 Grenoble | – | 66.0% | 74.7% | 69.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.097 → 9.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Chambéry | 13.0% | 7.72 | 9.00 | 11.1% | +16.6% | |
| X · Draw | 17.4% | 5.75 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +4.4% | |
| 2 · Grenoble | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -15.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 30.4% | 3.29 | 4.33 | 23.1% | +31.4% | |
| X2 | 87.0% | 1.15 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -8.6% | |
| 12 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Chambéry | 15.7% | 6.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Grenoble | 84.3% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.4% | 6.47 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -7.3% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | 2.87 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -6.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -10.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -1.3% | |
| BTTS no | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -15.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.4% | 6.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.1% | 2.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 51.5% | 1.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.652 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.061 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Chambéry | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLLLD | |
| Matches | – | 6 |
| W-D-L | – | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | – | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | – | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | – | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | – | 50% |
| BTTS | – | 50% |
| Clean sheets | – | 17% |
| Failed to score | – | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Grenoble favoured on the road at 70% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Grenoble have one win from their last six (W L L L L D). Latest: 3–2 at home to Reims. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Chambéry 0.95 · Grenoble 2.41 · total 3.36. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Chambéry 1–2 Grenoble. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Chambéry vs Grenoble?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Chambéry v Grenoble probabilities?
Chambéry win 13%, draw 17%, Grenoble win 70%.
What is the most probable score for Chambéry vs Grenoble?
Chambéry 1–2 Grenoble is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Chambéry vs Grenoble?
Chambéry 0.95, Grenoble 2.41 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Chambéry vs Grenoble?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Coupe De France.