- λ home
- 1.45
- λ away
- 0.69
- Σλ total
- 2.14
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 17.1%
Leones de Rosario vs Sportivo Barracas prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Leones de Rosario 55% · draw 28% · Sportivo Barracas 17%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Leones de Rosario v Sportivo Barracas: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Leones de Rosario v Sportivo Barracas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones de Rosario (home) | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.12 |
| Sportivo Barracas (away) | 0.81 | 0.95 | 0.70 | 0.54 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.07 × 1.00 × 1.04 ≈ 1.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.66 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.97 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.01 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.14 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.45, λaway = 0.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 55.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 17.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Leones de Rosario | 48.4% | 71.0% | 52.8% | 55.5% |
| X Draw | 34.3% | 18.0% | 27.4% | 27.6% |
| 2 Sportivo Barracas | 17.3% | 11.0% | 19.8% | 16.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Leones de Rosario | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -6.3% | |
| X · Draw | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -10.2% | |
| 2 · Sportivo Barracas | 16.9% | 5.92 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -23.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.8% | |
| X2 | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.89 | 52.9% | -15.8% | |
| 12 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -11.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Leones de Rosario | 76.6% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sportivo Barracas | 23.4% | 4.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -18.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.1% | 3.44 | 4.25 | 23.5% | +23.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -25.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | 2.18 | 45.9% | +15.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.1% | 3.56 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -35.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 71.9% | 1.39 | 1.49 | 67.1% | +7.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -16.4% | |
| BTTS no | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +1.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.1% | 6.61 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.719 × 1.49 − 1 = +0.071 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.145 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Leones de Rosario | Sportivo Barracas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLDD | DDDLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 0-4-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 0% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Leones de Rosario 55%, draw 28%, Sportivo Barracas 17%. Standings: Leones de Rosario 4th on 51, Sportivo Barracas 7th on 40.
Form
Leones de Rosario, last six: W W W L D D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Mercedes. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sportivo Barracas, last six: D D D L D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Sacachispas. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: Leones de Rosario 2, Sportivo Barracas 0, drawn 0, 2.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Sportivo Barracas 0–2 Leones de Rosario. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Leones de Rosario 1.45 · Sportivo Barracas 0.69 · total 2.14. Low total: under 2.5 53%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.49 v fair 1.39. Most probable score: Leones de Rosario 1–0 Sportivo Barracas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Oct 2026Sportivo Barracas0–2Leones de Rosario
- 6 Jun 2026Leones de Rosario2–0Sportivo Barracas
Primera C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lujan | 32 | +24 | 64 |
| 2 |  Canuelas | 32 | +21 | 61 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Español | 32 | +10 | 52 |
| 4 |  Leones de Rosario | 32 | +6 | 51 |
| 5 |  Central Cordoba | 32 | +9 | 49 |
| 6 |  General Lamadrid | 32 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 |  Sportivo Barracas | 32 | 0 | 40 |
| 8 |  El Porvenir | 32 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 |  Central Ballester | 32 | -5 | 38 |
| 10 |  Atletico Atlas | 32 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 |  Claypole | 32 | -13 | 36 |
| 12 |  Yupanqui | 32 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 |  Fénix | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Deportivo Muñiz | 32 | -15 | 29 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Leones de Rosario vs Sportivo Barracas?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.49 by the bookmakers.
What are the Leones de Rosario v Sportivo Barracas probabilities?
Leones de Rosario win 55%, draw 28%, Sportivo Barracas win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Leones de Rosario vs Sportivo Barracas?
Leones de Rosario 1–0 Sportivo Barracas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Leones de Rosario vs Sportivo Barracas?
Leones de Rosario 1.45, Sportivo Barracas 0.69 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Leones de Rosario vs Sportivo Barracas?
Monday 16 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Primera C.