- λ home
- 1.00
- λ away
- 0.55
- Σλ total
- 1.55
- P(over 2.5)
- 26%
- P(BTTS)
- 42%
- Modal score
- 0–0 21.3%
Deportivo Español vs Estrella Del Sur prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Deportivo Español 42% · draw 33% · Estrella Del Sur 25%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Deportivo Español v Estrella Del Sur: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Deportivo Español v Estrella Del Sur are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Español (home) | 1.07 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.85 |
| Estrella Del Sur (away) | 0.81 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.38 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.07 × 0.88 × 0.91 ≈ 0.85
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.23 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.61 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 1.97 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.55 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.00, λaway = 0.55
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 34.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 21.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Español | 43.6% | 47.0% | 37.4% | 41.8% |
| X Draw | 41.5% | 20.0% | 33.6% | 33.2% |
| 2 Estrella Del Sur | 14.9% | 33.0% | 28.9% | 25.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Español | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -0.5% | |
| X · Draw | 33.2% | 3.01 | 2.65 | 37.7% | -12.0% | |
| 2 · Estrella Del Sur | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -23.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -5.5% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -16.8% | |
| 12 | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -9.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Español | 62.6% | 1.60 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Estrella Del Sur | 37.4% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -16.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +2.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25.8% | 3.87 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -25.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -2.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11.4% | 8.80 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -34.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 88.6% | 1.13 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -5.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no pick | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -13.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.2% | 3.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 56.2% | 1.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.6% | 6.86 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.575 × 1.51 − 1 = -0.131 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Español | Estrella Del Sur |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDWWD | WWDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Deportivo Español 42%, draw 33%, Estrella Del Sur 25%. Standings: Deportivo Español 3rd on 52, Estrella Del Sur 3rd on 48.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo Español: D W D W W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to Victoriano Arenas. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Estrella Del Sur, last six: W W D W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to General Lamadrid. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Español 1.00 · Estrella Del Sur 0.55 · total 1.55. Low total: under 2.5 74%.
Model selection
Model selection: Not both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.51 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Deportivo Español 1–0 Estrella Del Sur. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Berazategui | 32 | +16 | 51 |
| 2 |  Sacachispas | 32 | +7 | 50 |
| 3 |  Estrella Del Sur | 32 | +3 | 48 |
| 4 |  Centro Español | 32 | +13 | 47 |
| 5 |  Mercedes | 32 | +7 | 47 |
| 6 |  Victoriano Arenas | 32 | +7 | 47 |
| 7 |  Lugano | 32 | +6 | 46 |
| 8 |  Juventud Unida | 32 | +6 | 45 |
| 9 |  Puerto Nuevo | 32 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Defensores de Cambaceres | 32 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 |  JJ Urquiza | 32 | -5 | 35 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Paraguayo | 32 | -18 | 32 |
| 13 |  Leandro N. Alem | 32 | -28 | 31 |
| 14 |  Argentino Rosario | 32 | -12 | 27 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Español vs Estrella Del Sur?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.51 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Español v Estrella Del Sur probabilities?
Deportivo Español win 42%, draw 33%, Estrella Del Sur win 25%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Español vs Estrella Del Sur?
Deportivo Español 1–0 Estrella Del Sur is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Español vs Estrella Del Sur?
Deportivo Español 1.00, Estrella Del Sur 0.55 – over 2.5 at 26%, BTTS at 42%.
What time is Deportivo Español vs Estrella Del Sur?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Primera C.