- λ home
- 1.09
- λ away
- 0.87
- Σλ total
- 1.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 32%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.3%
Canuelas vs Central Cordoba prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Canuelas 43% · draw 25% · Central Cordoba 32%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Canuelas v Central Cordoba: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Canuelas v Central Cordoba are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.87 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.04 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 1.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.09, λaway = 0.87
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Canuelas | – | 47.0% | 37.5% | 43.0% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 34.5% | 25.5% |
| 2 Central Cordoba | – | 34.0% | 28.1% | 31.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Canuelas | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +2.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -34.0% | |
| 2 · Central Cordoba | 31.5% | 3.17 | 3.18 | 31.4% | +0.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -15.1% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -18.5% | |
| 12 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Canuelas | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Central Cordoba | 42.3% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -8.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 41.6% | 2.40 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -8.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.4% | 3.08 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -12.4% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 15.4% | 6.48 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -19.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | 2.18 | 45.9% | +12.2% | |
| BTTS no | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -24.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.2% | 3.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.5% | 4.65 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.676 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.081 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Canuelas | Central Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWW | LLWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Canuelas ahead at 43%, against 32% for Central Cordoba and 25% for the draw. Standings: Canuelas 2nd on 61, Central Cordoba 5th on 49.
Form
Sequence for Canuelas: W W W D W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Lugano. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Central Cordoba: L L W W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Centro Español. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Canuelas 0, Central Cordoba 0, drawn 2, 1.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Canuelas 0–0 Central Cordoba. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Canuelas 1.09 · Central Cordoba 0.87 · total 1.96. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Canuelas 1–0 Central Cordoba. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Jul 2026Canuelas0–0Central Cordoba
- 4 Mar 2026Central Cordoba1–1Canuelas
Primera C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lujan | 32 | +24 | 64 |
| 2 |  Canuelas | 32 | +21 | 61 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Español | 32 | +10 | 52 |
| 4 |  Leones de Rosario | 32 | +6 | 51 |
| 5 |  Central Cordoba | 32 | +9 | 49 |
| 6 |  General Lamadrid | 32 | -4 | 41 |
| 7 |  Sportivo Barracas | 32 | 0 | 40 |
| 8 |  El Porvenir | 32 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 |  Central Ballester | 32 | -5 | 38 |
| 10 |  Atletico Atlas | 32 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 |  Claypole | 32 | -13 | 36 |
| 12 |  Yupanqui | 32 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 |  Fénix | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Deportivo Muñiz | 32 | -15 | 29 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Canuelas vs Central Cordoba?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Canuelas v Central Cordoba probabilities?
Canuelas win 43%, draw 25%, Central Cordoba win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Canuelas vs Central Cordoba?
Canuelas 1–0 Central Cordoba is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Canuelas vs Central Cordoba?
Canuelas 1.09, Central Cordoba 0.87 – over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Canuelas vs Central Cordoba?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Primera C.