- λ home
- 2.74
- λ away
- 1.05
- Σλ total
- 3.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.9%
Vietnam vs Chinese Taipei prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Vietnam v Chinese Taipei: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Vietnam v Chinese Taipei are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (17 and 3 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam (home) | 1.66 | 1.42 | 1.11 | – |
| Chinese Taipei (away) | 1.38 | 0.75 | 0.56 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.42 × 1.11 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.80 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.79 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.74, λaway = 1.05
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vietnam | – | 66.0% | 84.6% | 73.8% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 10.7% | 13.2% |
| 2 Chinese Taipei | – | 19.0% | 4.7% | 13.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vietnam | 73.8% | 1.36 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -19.6% | |
| X · Draw | 13.2% | 7.58 | 8.60 | 11.6% | +13.5% | |
| 2 · Chinese Taipei | 13.0% | 7.69 | 19.50 | 5.1% | +153.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.0% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 26.2% | 3.82 | 6.05 | 16.5% | +58.5% | |
| 12 | 86.8% | 1.15 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -10.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vietnam | 85.0% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Chinese Taipei | 15.0% | 6.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.6% | 1.13 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.4% | 8.75 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -14.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -9.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 27.0% | 3.70 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -8.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -4.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.98 | 50.5% | +13.8% | |
| BTTS no | 42.5% | 2.35 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -26.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 54.8% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.0% | 3.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.3% | 7.01 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.575 × 1.98 − 1 = +0.138 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.141 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vietnam | Chinese Taipei |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWDW | L |
| Matches | 6 | 1 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% |
| BTTS | 33% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Vietnam at 74%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Sequence for Vietnam: L W L W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Malaysia. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vietnam 2.74 · Chinese Taipei 1.05 · total 3.79. High total: over 2.5 73%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.98 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Vietnam 2–1 Chinese Taipei. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vietnam vs Chinese Taipei?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.98 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vietnam v Chinese Taipei probabilities?
Vietnam win 74%, draw 13%, Chinese Taipei win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Vietnam vs Chinese Taipei?
Vietnam 2–1 Chinese Taipei is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vietnam vs Chinese Taipei?
Vietnam 2.74, Chinese Taipei 1.05 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Vietnam vs Chinese Taipei?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Friendlies.