- λ home
- 3.48
- λ away
- 1.83
- Σλ total
- 5.31
- P(over 2.5)
- 89%
- P(BTTS)
- 74%
- Modal score
- 3–1 6.3%
Ulaanbaatar vs Hunters prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ulaanbaatar v Hunters: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 7–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ulaanbaatar v Hunters are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (27 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulaanbaatar (home) | 1.66 | 2.08 | 1.24 | 4.30 |
| Hunters (away) | 1.38 | 1.78 | 0.56 | 1.38 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 2.08 × 1.24 ≈ 4.30
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 5.67 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 5.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 5.18 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 5.31 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 3.48, λaway = 1.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.8%
- Most probable score
- 3–1 · 6.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ulaanbaatar | 84.9% | 64.0% | 73.4% | 67.9% |
| X Draw | 8.5% | 18.0% | 13.3% | 16.0% |
| 2 Hunters | 6.6% | 18.0% | 13.3% | 16.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.073 → 7.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ulaanbaatar | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -13.7% | |
| X · Draw | 16.0% | 6.24 | 7.00 | 14.3% | +12.2% | |
| 2 · Hunters | 16.0% | 6.24 | 7.00 | 14.3% | +12.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.0% | |
| X2 | 32.1% | 3.12 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +9.0% | |
| 12 | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -9.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ulaanbaatar | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hunters | 19.1% | 5.24 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 96.9% | 1.03 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 3.1% | 32.06 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 89.5% | 1.12 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -6.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 10.5% | 9.49 | 8.50 | 11.8% | -10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 22.4% | 4.46 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -13.9% | |
| BTTS no | 25.8% | 3.88 | 4.42 | 22.6% | +14.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 54.2% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 25.9% | 3.85 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.8% | 5.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ulaanbaatar | Hunters |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWWW | LWLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 3.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ulaanbaatar at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Ulaanbaatar 1st on 54, Hunters 5th on 36.
Form
Ulaanbaatar have five wins from their last six (L W W W W W). Latest: 1–4 away at Deren. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Hunters have two wins from their last six (L W L L L W). Latest: 2–3 away at Central Stallions. Per match: 1.8 scored, 3.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 3: Ulaanbaatar 3, Hunters 0, drawn 0, 7.7 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Hunters 1–9 Ulaanbaatar. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ulaanbaatar 3.48 · Hunters 1.83 · total 5.31. High total: over 2.5 89%, BTTS 74%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 97%. Most probable score: Ulaanbaatar 3–1 Hunters. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Nov 2026Hunters1–9Ulaanbaatar
- 27 Sep 2026Ulaanbaatar5–3Hunters
- 20 May 2026Hunters1–4Ulaanbaatar
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ulaanbaatar | 16 | +56 | 41 |
| 2 |  Central Stallions | 16 | +40 | 39 |
| 3 |  Khangarid | 16 | +40 | 33 |
| 4 |  Deren | 16 | +41 | 30 |
| 5 |  Hunters | 16 | +17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Khovd Western | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 7 |  Khovd | 16 | -45 | 12 |
| 8 |  Khoromkhon | 16 | -59 | 6 |
| 9 |  Ulaangom City | 16 | -83 | 4 |
| 10 |  Falcons | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ulaanbaatar vs Hunters?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 97.
What are the Ulaanbaatar v Hunters probabilities?
Ulaanbaatar win 68%, draw 16%, Hunters win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Ulaanbaatar vs Hunters?
Ulaanbaatar 3–1 Hunters is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ulaanbaatar vs Hunters?
Ulaanbaatar 3.48, Hunters 1.83 – over 2.5 at 89%, BTTS at 74%.
What time is Ulaanbaatar vs Hunters?
Friday 13 November 2026, 06:00 WAT – Premier League.