- λ home
- 1.64
- λ away
- 2.89
- Σλ total
- 4.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 83%
- P(BTTS)
- 71%
- Modal score
- 1–2 7.4%
Deren vs Ulaanbaatar prediction & xG model: Ulaanbaatar to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Deren v Ulaanbaatar: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUlaanbaatar to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Deren v Ulaanbaatar are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (26 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deren (home) | 1.66 | 1.66 | 0.56 | 1.55 |
| Ulaanbaatar (away) | 1.38 | 2.08 | 0.66 | 1.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.66 × 0.56 ≈ 1.55
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.44 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.54 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.64, λaway = 2.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 7.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deren | 31.5% | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.7% |
| X Draw | 23.1% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
| 2 Ulaanbaatar | 45.4% | 68.0% | 63.9% | 66.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deren | 22.7% | 4.40 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -9.1% | |
| X · Draw | 11.0% | 9.09 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -28.5% | |
| 2 · Ulaanbaatar pick | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 33.7% | 2.96 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -24.1% | |
| X2 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.4% | |
| 12 | 89.0% | 1.12 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -3.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deren | 25.5% | 3.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ulaanbaatar | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 94.0% | 1.06 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 6.0% | 16.66 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 83.0% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 17.0% | 5.88 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -6.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -10.2% | |
| BTTS no | 29.3% | 3.42 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -3.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.1% | 4.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 49.5% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.663 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.072 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deren | Ulaanbaatar |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWWL | WWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Ulaanbaatar 66%, Deren 23%. Standings: Deren 3rd on 45, Ulaanbaatar 1st on 54.
Form
Deren, last six: L D L W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Hunters. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Ulaanbaatar, last six: W W W W W W – six wins in total. Latest: 3–2 at home to Central Stallions. 4.0 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 4: Deren 1, Ulaanbaatar 3, drawn 0, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Ulaanbaatar 1–0 Deren. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deren 1.64 · Ulaanbaatar 2.89 · total 4.52. Goals expected – 83% for over 2.5 and 71% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Ulaanbaatar to win, probability 66%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Deren 1–2 Ulaanbaatar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Oct 2026Ulaanbaatar1–0Deren
- 6 Jul 2026Ulaanbaatar2–3Deren
- 27 Jun 2026Deren0–2Ulaanbaatar
- 23 May 2026Ulaanbaatar2–0Deren
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ulaanbaatar | 16 | +56 | 41 |
| 2 |  Central Stallions | 16 | +40 | 39 |
| 3 |  Khangarid | 16 | +40 | 33 |
| 4 |  Deren | 16 | +41 | 30 |
| 5 |  Hunters | 16 | +17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Khovd Western | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 7 |  Khovd | 16 | -45 | 12 |
| 8 |  Khoromkhon | 16 | -59 | 6 |
| 9 |  Ulaangom City | 16 | -83 | 4 |
| 10 |  Falcons | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deren vs Ulaanbaatar?
The Model pick is Ulaanbaatar to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deren v Ulaanbaatar probabilities?
Deren win 23%, draw 11%, Ulaanbaatar win 66%.
What is the most probable score for Deren vs Ulaanbaatar?
Deren 1–2 Ulaanbaatar is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deren vs Ulaanbaatar?
Deren 1.64, Ulaanbaatar 2.89 – over 2.5 at 83%, BTTS at 71%.
What time is Deren vs Ulaanbaatar?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 09:00 WAT – Premier League.