- λ home
- 1.13
- λ away
- 1.38
- Σλ total
- 2.51
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Deportivo La Guaira v Carabobo FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Deportivo La Guaira v Carabobo FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (36 and 38 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Guaira (home) | 1.66 | 1.11 | 0.59 | 1.08 |
| Carabobo FC (away) | 1.38 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 1.27 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.11 × 0.59 ≈ 1.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.36 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.44 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.51 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.13, λaway = 1.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 42.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo La Guaira | 30.8% | 31.0% | 34.7% | 32.6% |
| X Draw | 29.2% | 18.0% | 29.1% | 22.7% |
| 2 Carabobo FC | 39.9% | 51.0% | 36.1% | 44.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo La Guaira | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -15.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Carabobo FC | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +11.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -20.4% | |
| X2 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -2.9% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +2.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo La Guaira | 42.1% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Carabobo FC | 57.9% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.1% | 3.56 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -4.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.6% | 2.14 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -3.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.1% | 3.84 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -11.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 40.9% | 2.44 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -18.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.4% | 4.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.9% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.591 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.022 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.030 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo La Guaira | Carabobo FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLDWL | WDWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 45% against 33%. Standings: Deportivo La Guaira 2nd on 6, Carabobo FC 1st on 11.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo La Guaira: W D L D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–0 away at Portuguesa FC. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Carabobo FC have three wins from their last six (W D W D D W). Latest: 2–0 away at Metropolitanos FC. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Deportivo La Guaira 0, Carabobo FC 2, drawn 1, 2.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Carabobo FC 3–1 Deportivo La Guaira. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo La Guaira 1.13 · Carabobo FC 1.38 · total 2.51. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Carabobo FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Oct 2026Carabobo FC3–1Deportivo La Guaira
- 15 Sep 2026Carabobo FC1–0Deportivo La Guaira
- 3 Apr 2026Deportivo La Guaira1–1Carabobo FC
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metropolitanos FC | 26 | +26 | 57 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Tachira FC | 26 | +18 | 51 |
| 3 |  Deportivo La Guaira | 26 | +13 | 44 |
| 4 |  Carabobo FC | 26 | +14 | 41 |
| 5 |  Puerto Cabello | 26 | +9 | 40 |
| 6 |  Portuguesa FC | 26 | +10 | 39 |
| 7 |  UCV | 26 | +2 | 39 |
| 8 |  Estudiantes de Merida FC | 26 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 |  Caracas FC | 26 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 |  Monagas SC | 26 | -8 | 29 |
| 11 |  Zamora FC | 26 | -15 | 25 |
| 12 |  Rayo Zuliano | 26 | -21 | 25 |
| 13 |  Trujillanos FC | 26 | -23 | 18 |
| 14 |  Anzoátegui FC | 26 | -24 | 17 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo La Guaira v Carabobo FC probabilities?
Deportivo La Guaira win 33%, draw 23%, Carabobo FC win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC?
Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Carabobo FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC?
Deportivo La Guaira 1.13, Carabobo FC 1.38 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC?
Monday 9 November 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV – Primera División.