- λ home
- 3.42
- λ away
- 1.08
- Σλ total
- 4.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 83%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 3–1 8.0%
Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Penybont v Cardiff Draconians: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 6–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Penybont v Cardiff Draconians are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.50 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 4.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 3.42, λaway = 1.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 80.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 11.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.0%
- Most probable score
- 3–1 · 8.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Penybont | – | 75.0% | 84.7% | 79.1% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 10.5% | 14.8% |
| 2 Cardiff Draconians | – | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Penybont | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -17.0% | |
| X · Draw | 14.8% | 6.74 | 8.50 | 11.8% | +26.1% | |
| 2 · Cardiff Draconians | 6.1% | 16.45 | 18.50 | 5.4% | +12.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 93.9% | 1.06 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 20.9% | 4.78 | 5.90 | 16.9% | +23.4% | |
| 12 | 85.2% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Penybont | 92.9% | 1.08 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cardiff Draconians | 7.1% | 14.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 93.9% | 1.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 6.1% | 16.37 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 17.4% | 5.76 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -15.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +13.1% | |
| BTTS no | 40.8% | 2.45 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -29.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 62.6% | 1.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 25.7% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.6% | 8.61 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.592 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.131 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.144 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Penybont | Cardiff Draconians |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLW | LWLWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Penybont at 79%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Sequence for Penybont: W W W W L W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Caernarfon Town. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Cardiff Draconians have two wins from their last six (L W L W D D). Latest: 0–2 away at Swansea University. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Penybont 3.42 · Cardiff Draconians 1.08 · total 4.50. High total: over 2.5 83%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Penybont 3–1 Cardiff Draconians. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Briton Ferry0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Penybont v Cardiff Draconians probabilities?
Penybont win 79%, draw 15%, Cardiff Draconians win 6%.
What is the most probable score for Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Penybont 3–1 Cardiff Draconians is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Penybont 3.42, Cardiff Draconians 1.08 – over 2.5 at 83%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Bryntirion Park – Welsh Cup.