- λ home
- 2.04
- λ away
- 1.83
- Σλ total
- 3.87
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 69%
- Modal score
- 2–1 7.9%
Cambrian & Clydach vs Bangor City 1876 FC prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Cambrian & Clydach 51% · draw 22% · Bangor City 1876 FC 28%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Cambrian & Clydach v Bangor City 1876 FC: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Cambrian & Clydach v Bangor City 1876 FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (25 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambrian & Clydach (home) | 1.66 | 1.33 | 0.90 | 1.98 |
| Bangor City 1876 FC (away) | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.16 | 2.18 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.33 × 0.90 ≈ 1.98
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.16 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.75 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.87 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.04, λaway = 1.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 7.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cambrian & Clydach | 35.9% | 66.0% | 54.4% | 50.7% |
| X Draw | 20.8% | 19.0% | 23.6% | 21.6% |
| 2 Bangor City 1876 FC | 43.3% | 15.0% | 21.9% | 27.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cambrian & Clydach | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -16.4% | |
| X · Draw | 21.6% | 4.64 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -18.0% | |
| 2 · Bangor City 1876 FC | 27.8% | 3.60 | 4.10 | 24.4% | +13.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.2% | 1.38 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -15.5% | |
| X2 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +3.6% | |
| 12 | 78.4% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cambrian & Clydach | 64.6% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bangor City 1876 FC | 35.4% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.7% | 1.13 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -5.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.3% | 8.84 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -15.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 26.7% | 3.75 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -9.2% | |
| Over 3.5 pick | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -6.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -7.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -7.8% | |
| BTTS no | 30.7% | 3.26 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -0.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.5% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.5% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.539 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.068 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cambrian & Clydach | Bangor City 1876 FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWLL | WDWDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Cambrian & Clydach 51%, draw 22%, Bangor City 1876 FC 28%.
Form
Cambrian & Clydach, last six: D L L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–3 at home to Barry Town. Per match: 1.7 scored, 3.0 conceded.
Bangor City 1876 FC have two wins from their last six (W D W D L L). Latest: 9–0 at home to Gresford Athletic. 2.3 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cambrian & Clydach 2.04 · Bangor City 1876 FC 1.83 · total 3.87. High total: over 2.5 73%, BTTS 69%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Cambrian & Clydach 3–1 Bangor City 1876 FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cambrian & Clydach vs Bangor City 1876 FC?
The Model pick is Over 3.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cambrian & Clydach v Bangor City 1876 FC probabilities?
Cambrian & Clydach win 51%, draw 22%, Bangor City 1876 FC win 28%.
What is the most probable score for Cambrian & Clydach vs Bangor City 1876 FC?
Cambrian & Clydach 3–1 Bangor City 1876 FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cambrian & Clydach vs Bangor City 1876 FC?
Cambrian & Clydach 2.04, Bangor City 1876 FC 1.83 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 69%.
What time is Cambrian & Clydach vs Bangor City 1876 FC?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 18:35 WAT – Welsh Cup.