- λ home
- 1.49
- λ away
- 1.38
- Σλ total
- 2.87
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.7%
Sestao River vs Recreativo Huelva prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sestao River v Recreativo Huelva: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sestao River v Recreativo Huelva are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (26 and 47 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestao River (home) | 1.66 | 1.08 | 0.83 | 1.49 |
| Recreativo Huelva (away) | 1.38 | 1.07 | 0.51 | 0.76 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.08 × 0.83 ≈ 1.49
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.24 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.35 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.87 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.49, λaway = 1.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sestao River | 53.5% | 43.0% | 38.4% | 41.1% |
| X Draw | 27.8% | 18.0% | 29.5% | 22.8% |
| 2 Recreativo Huelva | 18.6% | 39.0% | 32.1% | 36.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sestao River | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -4.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.38 | 3.02 | 33.1% | -31.0% | |
| 2 · Recreativo Huelva | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.78 | 36.0% | +0.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -15.6% | |
| X2 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -14.6% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -2.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sestao River | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Recreativo Huelva | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -1.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.0% | 3.58 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -25.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.08 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -18.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.6% | 3.63 | 3.98 | 25.1% | +9.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -15.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.88 | 53.2% | +6.8% | |
| BTTS no | 43.2% | 2.31 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -23.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.2% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.1% | 3.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.568 × 1.88 − 1 = +0.068 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.077 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sestao River | Recreativo Huelva |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWWW | DLWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 23 / 36% for home, draw, away.
Form
Sestao River have five wins from their last six (W W D W W W). Latest: 2–0 at home to Deportivo Alavés II. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Recreativo Huelva, last six: D L W D D W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Mijas Las Lagunas. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sestao River 1.49 · Recreativo Huelva 1.38 · total 2.87. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.88 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Sestao River 2–1 Recreativo Huelva. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sestao River vs Recreativo Huelva?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.88 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sestao River v Recreativo Huelva probabilities?
Sestao River win 41%, draw 23%, Recreativo Huelva win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Sestao River vs Recreativo Huelva?
Sestao River 2–1 Recreativo Huelva is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sestao River vs Recreativo Huelva?
Sestao River 1.49, Recreativo Huelva 1.38 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Sestao River vs Recreativo Huelva?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Copa Federacion.