- λ home
- 1.71
- λ away
- 1.58
- Σλ total
- 3.30
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.0%
BK Hacken vs Fredrikstad prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
BK Hacken v Fredrikstad: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for BK Hacken v Fredrikstad are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK Hacken (home) | 1.66 | 1.31 | 0.81 | 1.76 |
| Fredrikstad (away) | 1.38 | 1.26 | 0.69 | 1.20 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.31 × 0.81 ≈ 1.76
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.96 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.16 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.41 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.30 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.71, λaway = 1.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BK Hacken | 49.9% | 44.0% | 42.5% | 43.4% |
| X Draw | 24.5% | 16.0% | 22.9% | 18.9% |
| 2 Fredrikstad | 25.6% | 40.0% | 34.6% | 37.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · BK Hacken | 43.4% | 2.31 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 18.9% | 5.29 | 3.93 | 25.4% | -25.7% | |
| 2 · Fredrikstad | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -1.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.3% | 1.61 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -14.7% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -12.8% | |
| 12 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB BK Hacken | 53.5% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fredrikstad | 46.5% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.1% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.9% | 6.28 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -10.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.9% | 2.86 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -10.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -6.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -11.4% | |
| BTTS no | 35.4% | 2.83 | 2.76 | 36.2% | -2.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.5% | 3.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.651 × 1.38 − 1 = -0.102 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | BK Hacken | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWWW | DLWLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – BK Hacken 43%, draw 19%, Fredrikstad 38%.
Form
Sequence for BK Hacken: L W D W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–3 away at AIK Stockholm. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Fredrikstad: D L W L L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Brann. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG BK Hacken 1.71 · Fredrikstad 1.58 · total 3.30. Goals expected – 65% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.38 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: BK Hacken 2–1 Fredrikstad. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for BK Hacken vs Fredrikstad?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.38 by the bookmakers.
What are the BK Hacken v Fredrikstad probabilities?
BK Hacken win 43%, draw 19%, Fredrikstad win 38%.
What is the most probable score for BK Hacken vs Fredrikstad?
BK Hacken 2–1 Fredrikstad is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for BK Hacken vs Fredrikstad?
BK Hacken 1.71, Fredrikstad 1.58 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is BK Hacken vs Fredrikstad?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.