- λ home
- 1.96
- λ away
- 1.10
- Σλ total
- 3.07
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto prediction & xG model: Aurora to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Aurora v Universitario de Vinto: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAurora to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Aurora v Universitario de Vinto are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora (home) | 1.78 | 0.90 | 1.23 | 1.97 |
| Universitario de Vinto (away) | 1.23 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.94 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.78 × 0.90 × 1.23 ≈ 1.97
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.90 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.02 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.07 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.96, λaway = 1.10
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aurora | 60.5% | 61.0% | 52.6% | 57.5% |
| X Draw | 22.4% | 19.0% | 24.6% | 21.4% |
| 2 Universitario de Vinto | 17.1% | 20.0% | 22.8% | 21.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.098 → 9.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Aurora pick | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -0.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.68 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -21.0% | |
| 2 · Universitario de Vinto | 21.2% | 4.73 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -15.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.8% | |
| X2 | 42.5% | 2.35 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -23.5% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Aurora | 73.1% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Universitario de Vinto | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.0% | 5.27 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -5.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -6.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -9.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -5.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -7.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.6% | 5.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.575 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.006 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Aurora | Universitario de Vinto |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWLLD | LLWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Aurora 57%, draw 21%, Universitario de Vinto 21%. Standings: Aurora 6th on 36, Universitario de Vinto 14th on 22.
Form
Sequence for Aurora: W D W L L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–2 at home to Independiente Petrolero. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Sequence for Universitario de Vinto: L L W L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–3 at home to Always Ready. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 3: Aurora 2, Universitario de Vinto 0, drawn 1, 3.7 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Aurora 4–2 Universitario de Vinto. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Aurora 1.96 · Universitario de Vinto 1.10 · total 3.07. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Aurora to win, probability 57%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Aurora 2–1 Universitario de Vinto. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Sep 2026Aurora4–2Universitario de Vinto
- 2 Sep 2026Universitario de Vinto1–1Aurora
- 2 Jun 2026Universitario de Vinto1–2Aurora
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bolívar | 25 | +37 | 60 |
| 2 |  Always Ready | 25 | +42 | 57 |
| 3 |  The Strongest | 25 | +17 | 48 |
| 4 |  Oriente Petrolero | 25 | +12 | 41 |
| 5 |  Real Potosí | 25 | +14 | 40 |
| 6 |  Aurora | 25 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 |  Nacional Potosí | 25 | +4 | 33 |
| 8 |  Guabirá | 25 | -10 | 33 |
| 9 |  Blooming | 25 | +6 | 31 |
| 10 |  Real Oruro | 25 | -17 | 31 |
| 11 |  Independiente Petrolero | 25 | -10 | 30 |
| 12 |  San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 25 | -22 | 27 |
| 13 |  Real Tomayapo | 25 | -23 | 23 |
| 14 |  Universitario de Vinto | 25 | -17 | 22 |
| 15 |  Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 25 | -17 | 20 |
| 16 |  ABB | 25 | -20 | 20 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?
The Model pick is Aurora to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Aurora v Universitario de Vinto probabilities?
Aurora win 57%, draw 21%, Universitario de Vinto win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?
Aurora 2–1 Universitario de Vinto is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?
Aurora 1.96, Universitario de Vinto 1.10 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 01:30 WAT, at Felix Capriles – Primera División.