- λ home
- 2.08
- λ away
- 1.15
- Σλ total
- 3.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.8%
Inter Moengotapoe vs Flora prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Inter Moengotapoe 65% · draw 18% · Flora 17%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Inter Moengotapoe v Flora: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Inter Moengotapoe v Flora are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (7 and 8 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Moengotapoe (home) | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.04 | 1.95 |
| Flora (away) | 1.59 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 1.27 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.35 × 1.39 × 1.04 ≈ 1.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.22 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.89 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.51 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.08, λaway = 1.15
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Inter Moengotapoe | 52.4% | 68.0% | 74.5% | 65.3% |
| X Draw | 23.0% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
| 2 Flora | 24.6% | 21.0% | 8.9% | 17.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Inter Moengotapoe | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -21.0% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.71 | 5.45 | 18.3% | -4.6% | |
| 2 · Flora | 17.2% | 5.82 | 10.10 | 9.9% | +73.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -14.7% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 3.48 | 28.7% | +20.7% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -11.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Inter Moengotapoe | 79.2% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Flora | 20.8% | 4.80 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.8% | 5.94 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -13.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -1.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -16.7% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -0.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -10.3% | |
| BTTS no | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -5.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.7% | 2.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.5% | 5.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.552 × 1.81 − 1 = -0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Inter Moengotapoe | Flora |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWLWD | LDLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Inter Moengotapoe at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Inter Moengotapoe 4th on 40, Flora 8th on 17.
Form
Inter Moengotapoe have three wins from their last six (D W W L W D). Latest: 3–3 at home to Robin Hood. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Flora: L D L D L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Notch. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Inter Moengotapoe 2.08 · Flora 1.15 · total 3.22. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 55%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.81. Most probable score: Inter Moengotapoe 2–1 Flora. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Robin Hood | 24 | +52 | 62 |
| 2 |  Leo Victor | 24 | +20 | 49 |
| 3 |  Voorwaarts | 24 | +23 | 46 |
| 4 |  Inter Moengotapoe | 24 | +22 | 40 |
| 5 |  Transvaal | 24 | -3 | 27 |
| 6 |  Broki | 24 | -14 | 26 |
| 7 |  Notch | 24 | -5 | 25 |
| 8 |  Flora | 24 | -31 | 17 |
| 9 |  FC Inter Wanica | 24 | -64 | 8 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Inter Moengotapoe vs Flora?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Inter Moengotapoe v Flora probabilities?
Inter Moengotapoe win 65%, draw 18%, Flora win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Inter Moengotapoe vs Flora?
Inter Moengotapoe 2–1 Flora is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Inter Moengotapoe vs Flora?
Inter Moengotapoe 2.08, Flora 1.15 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Inter Moengotapoe vs Flora?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 20:30 WAT – Eerste Divisie.