- λ home
- 1.00
- λ away
- 2.58
- Σλ total
- 3.59
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.3%
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Salamanca UDS v Celta Vigo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Salamanca UDS v Celta Vigo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.59 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.59 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.00, λaway = 2.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 12.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 71.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Salamanca UDS | – | 15.0% | 7.9% | 12.0% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 14.6% | 17.1% |
| 2 Celta Vigo | – | 66.0% | 77.6% | 70.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.057 → 5.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Salamanca UDS | 12.0% | 8.33 | 12.00 | 8.3% | +44.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.1% | 5.84 | 6.50 | 15.4% | +11.4% | |
| 2 · Celta Vigo | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -13.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 29.1% | 3.43 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +16.6% | |
| X2 | 88.0% | 1.14 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -7.6% | |
| 12 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Salamanca UDS | 14.5% | 6.90 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Celta Vigo | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -4.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.33 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -11.4% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -5.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -5.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -7.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -7.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +1.6% | |
| BTTS no | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -10.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.4% | 6.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.4% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.695 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Salamanca UDS | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDLW | DLLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Celta Vigo favoured on the road at 71% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Sequence for Salamanca UDS: W W L D L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–1 away at Real Ávila. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Celta Vigo: D L L D W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to Levante. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Salamanca UDS 1.00 · Celta Vigo 2.58 · total 3.59. High total: over 2.5 70%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.44. Most probable score: Salamanca UDS 1–2 Celta Vigo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Salamanca UDS v Celta Vigo probabilities?
Salamanca UDS win 12%, draw 17%, Celta Vigo win 71%.
What is the most probable score for Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo?
Salamanca UDS 1–2 Celta Vigo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo?
Salamanca UDS 1.00, Celta Vigo 2.58 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo?
Friday 13 November 2026, 21:00 WAT – Copa Del Rey.