- λ home
- 0.87
- λ away
- 1.75
- Σλ total
- 2.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.7%
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén prediction & xG model: Real Jaén to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaén: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipReal Jaén to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaén are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (18 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mijas Las Lagunas (home) | 1.66 | 1.15 | 0.91 | 1.74 |
| Real Jaén (away) | 1.38 | 1.12 | 0.95 | 1.47 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.15 × 0.91 ≈ 1.74
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.21 | 60% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 40% |
| Blended total λ | 2.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.87, λaway = 1.75
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 18.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.2%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mijas Las Lagunas | 43.7% | 15.0% | 22.9% | 18.3% |
| X Draw | 24.1% | 21.0% | 27.0% | 23.5% |
| 2 Real Jaén | 32.1% | 64.0% | 50.1% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.091 → 9.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mijas Las Lagunas | 18.3% | 5.46 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -26.7% | |
| X · Draw | 23.5% | 4.25 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -20.1% | |
| 2 · Real Jaén pick | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +6.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -16.3% | |
| X2 | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -2.0% | |
| 12 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mijas Las Lagunas | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Jaén | 76.0% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.6% | 3.77 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -7.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -5.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -9.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -4.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -12.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 16.8% | 5.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.6% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.582 × 1.83 − 1 = +0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.078 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mijas Las Lagunas | Real Jaén |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDWWD | LWDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Real Jaén narrowly ahead at 58%; Mijas Las Lagunas 18%.
Form
Sequence for Mijas Las Lagunas: D D D W W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Recreativo Huelva. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Real Jaén, last six: L W D W D D – two wins in total. Latest: 3–4 away at Alcorcon. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mijas Las Lagunas 0.87 · Real Jaén 1.75 · total 2.62. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Real Jaén to win, probability 58%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Mijas Las Lagunas 0–1 Real Jaén. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Leganes1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén?
The Model pick is Real Jaén to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mijas Las Lagunas v Real Jaén probabilities?
Mijas Las Lagunas win 18%, draw 24%, Real Jaén win 58%.
What is the most probable score for Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén?
Mijas Las Lagunas 0–1 Real Jaén is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén?
Mijas Las Lagunas 0.87, Real Jaén 1.75 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Copa Del Rey.