- λ home
- 0.77
- λ away
- 2.22
- Σλ total
- 2.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 0–2 12.4%
South Sudan U23 vs Senegal U23 prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
South Sudan U23 v Senegal U23: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for South Sudan U23 v Senegal U23 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (3 and 1 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Sudan U23 (home) | 1.66 | 0.91 | 0.80 | – |
| Senegal U23 (away) | 1.38 | 0.84 | 0.80 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.91 × 0.80 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.77, λaway = 2.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 11.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 70.3%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 South Sudan U23 | – | 18.0% | 6.1% | 13.0% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| 2 Senegal U23 | – | 66.0% | 79.5% | 71.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · South Sudan U23 | 13.0% | 7.68 | 14.50 | 6.9% | +88.8% | |
| X · Draw | 15.3% | 6.53 | 6.21 | 16.1% | -5.0% | |
| 2 · Senegal U23 | 71.7% | 1.40 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -19.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 28.3% | 3.53 | 4.35 | 23.0% | +23.2% | |
| X2 | 87.0% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -11.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB South Sudan U23 | 15.4% | 6.51 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Senegal U23 | 84.6% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.1% | 4.98 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 57.3% | 1.74 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -8.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.63 | 38.0% | -8.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -8.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.4% | 2.02 | 2.39 | 41.8% | +18.1% | |
| BTTS no | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -25.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 12.7% | 7.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.5% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 50.8% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.573 × 1.60 − 1 = -0.083 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 2 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | South Sudan U23 | Senegal U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LW | |
| Matches | 2 | – |
| W-D-L | 1-0-1 | – |
| Points per match | 1.50 | – |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | – |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | – |
| BTTS | 50% | – |
| Clean sheets | 50% | – |
| Failed to score | 0% | – |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Senegal U23 72%, South Sudan U23 13%.
Expected goals (xG)
xG South Sudan U23 0.77 · Senegal U23 2.22 · total 2.99. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: South Sudan U23 1–2 Senegal U23. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Zambia U230Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for South Sudan U23 vs Senegal U23?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the South Sudan U23 v Senegal U23 probabilities?
South Sudan U23 win 13%, draw 15%, Senegal U23 win 72%.
What is the most probable score for South Sudan U23 vs Senegal U23?
South Sudan U23 1–2 Senegal U23 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for South Sudan U23 vs Senegal U23?
South Sudan U23 0.77, Senegal U23 2.22 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is South Sudan U23 vs Senegal U23?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – CAF U23 Cup Of Nations.