- λ home
- 1.86
- λ away
- 0.60
- Σλ total
- 2.46
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.9%
Paradou AC vs JSM Skikda prediction & xG model: Paradou AC to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Paradou AC v JSM Skikda: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipParadou AC to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Paradou AC v JSM Skikda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (21 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradou AC (home) | 1.66 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 1.64 |
| JSM Skikda (away) | 1.38 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.34 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.09 × 0.91 ≈ 1.64
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.98 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.46 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.86, λaway = 0.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Paradou AC | 43.8% | 75.0% | 58.7% | 68.2% |
| X Draw | 25.2% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 19.8% |
| 2 JSM Skikda | 31.0% | 9.0% | 16.3% | 12.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Paradou AC pick | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +4.3% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -28.9% | |
| 2 · JSM Skikda | 12.1% | 8.28 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -33.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.9% | 1.14 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -2.4% | |
| X2 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -31.5% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Paradou AC | 84.9% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB JSM Skikda | 15.1% | 6.64 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -5.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.6% | 2.10 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -15.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.4% | 8.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.682 × 1.53 − 1 = +0.043 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.081 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Paradou AC | JSM Skikda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLWLL | WLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Paradou AC at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Paradou AC 6th on 14, JSM Skikda 5th on 15.
Form
Paradou AC have two wins from their last six (D W L W L L). Latest: 0–0 away at CA Batna. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
JSM Skikda have four wins from their last six (W L W L W W). Latest: 3–2 at home to Teleghma. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Paradou AC 1.86 · JSM Skikda 0.60 · total 2.46. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Paradou AC to win, probability 68%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Paradou AC 1–0 JSM Skikda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MSP Batna | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 2 |  MO Bejaia | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 3 |  Azazga | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 4 |  USM Annaba | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 5 |  JSM Skikda | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |  Paradou AC | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 |  NC Magra | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  MO Constantine | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 |  Khroub | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 |  CA Batna | 9 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Nrb Beni Oulbene | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 |  US Chaouia | 9 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 |  Teleghma | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 |  JS Jijel | 9 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  IRB Nezla | 9 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  CR Béni Thour | 9 | -8 | 6 |
More Ligue 2 predictions
League page →
WA Tlemcen0
RC Arba0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Paradou AC vs JSM Skikda?
The Model pick is Paradou AC to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Paradou AC v JSM Skikda probabilities?
Paradou AC win 68%, draw 20%, JSM Skikda win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Paradou AC vs JSM Skikda?
Paradou AC 1–0 JSM Skikda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Paradou AC vs JSM Skikda?
Paradou AC 1.86, JSM Skikda 0.60 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Paradou AC vs JSM Skikda?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Stade Hydra – Ligue 2.