Mon 9 Nov 2026 Full time

United FC U23

LLLLW

1–1

Half-time 0–1

Al Nasr U23

LLWDD

37%P(1)21%P(X)42%P(2)

λ home: 1.73
λ away: 1.86
Σλ total: 3.59
P(over 2.5): 66%
P(BTTS): 65%
Modal score: 1–1 8.9%

United FC U23 vs Al Nasr U23 prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

United FC U23 v Al Nasr U23: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for United FC U23 v Al Nasr U23 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (8 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
United FC U23 (home)	1.66	0.95	1.14	1.81
Al Nasr U23 (away)	1.38	1.06	1.17	1.72

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.95 × 1.14 ≈ 1.81

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.53	45%
Statistical xG feed	4.07	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.20	30%
Blended total λ	3.59	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.73, λ_away = 1.86

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

United FC U23 λ = 1.73

017.7%

130.6%

226.5%

315.3%

46.6%

5+3.2%

Al Nasr U23 λ = 1.86

015.5%

128.9%

226.9%

316.7%

47.8%

5+4.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Uni \ Al 012345+

02.75.14.83.01.40.7

14.88.98.35.12.41.3

24.17.77.14.42.11.1

32.44.44.12.61.20.6

41.01.91.81.10.5·

5+·0.90.90.5··

Σ home-win cells: 36.4%
Σ draw cells: 22.0%
Σ away-win cells: 41.7%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 8.9%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 United FC U23	40.3%	38.0%	35.8%	37.1%
X Draw	23.0%	17.0%	25.5%	20.6%
2 Al Nasr U23	36.7%	45.0%	38.7%	42.4%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · United FC U23	37.1%	2.70	2.49	40.2%	-7.7%
X · Draw	20.6%	4.87	3.50	28.6%	-28.1%
2 · Al Nasr U23	42.4%	2.36	2.30	43.5%	-2.5%
Double chance
1X	57.6%	1.74	1.46	68.5%	-15.9%
X2	62.9%	1.59	1.39	71.9%	-12.5%
12	79.4%	1.26	1.20	83.3%	-4.7%
Draw no bet
DNB United FC U23	46.7%	2.14	–	–	–
DNB Al Nasr U23	53.3%	1.87	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	87.4%	1.14	–	–	–
Under 1.5	12.6%	7.92	–	–	–
Over 2.5 pick	65.8%	1.52	1.46	68.5%	-3.9%
Under 2.5	34.2%	2.92	2.38	42.0%	-18.6%
Over 3.5	45.2%	2.21	2.18	45.9%	-1.5%
Under 3.5	54.8%	1.82	1.58	63.3%	-13.4%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	64.9%	1.54	1.42	70.4%	-7.9%
BTTS no	35.1%	2.85	2.53	39.5%	-11.1%
Half-time
HT 1	30.6%	3.27	–	–	–
HT X	35.6%	2.81	–	–	–
HT 2	33.9%	2.95	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 2.5 goals

Probability65.8%

Fair odds1.52

Best odds1.46

EV per unit-3.9%

EV = 0.658 × 1.46 − 1 = -0.039 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	United FC U23	Al Nasr U23
Sequence	WLLLLW	DDWLLL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-0-4	1-2-3
Points per match	1.00	0.83
Goals for / match	1.83	1.67
Goals against / match	2.33	2.33
Over 2.5	83%	83%
BTTS	67%	83%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

No clear favourite in the grid – United FC U23 37%, draw 21%, Al Nasr U23 42%.

Form

United FC U23 have two wins from their last six (W L L L L W). Latest: 4–0 away at Khorfakkan U23. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded.

Sequence for Al Nasr U23: D D W L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 3–3 at home to Al Sharjah U23. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Expected goals (xG)

xG United FC U23 1.73 · Al Nasr U23 1.86 · total 3.59. Goals expected – 66% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.46 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: United FC U23 1–2 Al Nasr U23. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.