- λ home
- 1.99
- λ away
- 0.75
- Σλ total
- 2.74
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.9%
Atsalenios vs Rethymniakos prediction & xG model: Atsalenios to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Atsalenios v Rethymniakos: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAtsalenios to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Atsalenios v Rethymniakos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (7 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atsalenios (home) | 1.49 | 1.03 | 1.16 | 1.78 |
| Rethymniakos (away) | 0.94 | 1.53 | 0.62 | 0.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.49 × 1.03 × 1.16 ≈ 1.78
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.67 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.74 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.99, λaway = 0.75
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Atsalenios | 57.7% | 73.0% | 55.2% | 65.5% |
| X Draw | 24.3% | 21.0% | 24.2% | 22.3% |
| 2 Rethymniakos | 18.1% | 6.0% | 20.6% | 12.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Atsalenios pick | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +6.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.48 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -17.4% | |
| 2 · Rethymniakos | 12.2% | 8.23 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -47.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.8% | 1.14 | 1.14 | 87.7% | +0.1% | |
| X2 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -27.6% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Atsalenios | 84.4% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Rethymniakos | 15.6% | 6.39 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.2% | 4.14 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -9.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -1.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.5% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.1% | 1.81 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -10.2% | |
| BTTS no | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -7.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.4% | 7.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.655 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.061 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.099 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Atsalenios | Rethymniakos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWWDW | WWWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Atsalenios at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Atsalenios 3rd on 16, Rethymniakos 2nd on 16.
Form
Atsalenios, last six: D D W W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Kissamikos. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Rethymniakos have five wins from their last six (W W W W L W). Latest: 3–0 at home to Episkopi. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Atsalenios 1.99 · Rethymniakos 0.75 · total 2.74. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Atsalenios to win, probability 66%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Atsalenios 1–0 Rethymniakos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Gamma Ethniki Group 10 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kissamikos | 7 | +15 | 17 |
| 2 |  Rethymniakos | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Atsalenios | 8 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Giouchtas | 7 | +11 | 13 |
| 5 |  Agios Nikolaos | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 |  Tympaki | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 |  Ergotelis | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Episkopi | 7 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Panakrotiriakos | 7 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 |  Chersonissos | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 11 |  Platanias | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 |  AE Neapolis | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Atsalenios vs Rethymniakos?
The Model pick is Atsalenios to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Atsalenios v Rethymniakos probabilities?
Atsalenios win 66%, draw 22%, Rethymniakos win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Atsalenios vs Rethymniakos?
Atsalenios 1–0 Rethymniakos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Atsalenios vs Rethymniakos?
Atsalenios 1.99, Rethymniakos 0.75 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Atsalenios vs Rethymniakos?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Gamma Ethniki Group 10.