- λ home
- 1.04
- λ away
- 1.16
- Σλ total
- 2.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 39%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.4%
Saronikos Anavyssou vs Ilioupoli prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Saronikos Anavyssou 35% · draw 23% · Ilioupoli 41%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Saronikos Anavyssou v Ilioupoli: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Saronikos Anavyssou v Ilioupoli are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.08 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.32 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.04, λaway = 1.16
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Saronikos Anavyssou | – | 36.0% | 34.7% | 35.5% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 30.1% | 23.1% |
| 2 Ilioupoli | – | 46.0% | 35.1% | 41.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Saronikos Anavyssou | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -7.8% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.33 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -30.7% | |
| 2 · Ilioupoli | 41.4% | 2.41 | 2.57 | 38.9% | +6.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -18.0% | |
| X2 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.7% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.32 | 75.8% | +1.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Saronikos Anavyssou | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ilioupoli | 53.9% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 64.7% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.3% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -12.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -7.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.2% | 5.49 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.7% | 1.83 | 2.04 | 49.0% | +11.5% | |
| BTTS no | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -19.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.6% | 4.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.3% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.1% | 3.55 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.547 × 2.04 − 1 = +0.115 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.111 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Saronikos Anavyssou | Ilioupoli |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLLL | LLDWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-0-6 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Saronikos Anavyssou 35%, draw 23%, Ilioupoli 41%. Standings: Saronikos Anavyssou 10th on 3, Ilioupoli 8th on 5.
Form
Saronikos Anavyssou have zero wins from their last six (L L L L L L). Latest: 0–2 at home to Nea Ionia. Only 0.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Ilioupoli have one win from their last six (L L D W L D). Latest: 0–2 away at Ilisiakos. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Saronikos Anavyssou 1.04 · Ilioupoli 1.16 · total 2.21. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 39%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 2.04 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Saronikos Anavyssou 1–2 Ilioupoli. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Gamma Ethniki Group 9 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Asteras Varis | 7 | +3 | 16 |
| 2 |  Ilisiakos | 6 | +7 | 15 |
| 3 |  AE Mykonos | 7 | +8 | 13 |
| 4 |  Nea Ionia | 7 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 |  Pannaxiakos | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 6 |  Thyella Diastavroseos | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Asteras Magoula | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 |  Ilioupoli | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 |  Ethnikos Asteras | 7 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 |  Saronikos Anavyssou | 6 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 |  Acharnaikos | 6 | -16 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Saronikos Anavyssou vs Ilioupoli?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 2.04 by the bookmakers.
What are the Saronikos Anavyssou v Ilioupoli probabilities?
Saronikos Anavyssou win 35%, draw 23%, Ilioupoli win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Saronikos Anavyssou vs Ilioupoli?
Saronikos Anavyssou 1–2 Ilioupoli is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Saronikos Anavyssou vs Ilioupoli?
Saronikos Anavyssou 1.04, Ilioupoli 1.16 – over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Saronikos Anavyssou vs Ilioupoli?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Gamma Ethniki Group 9.