- λ home
- 1.73
- λ away
- 0.62
- Σλ total
- 2.35
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 44%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.4%
Panargiakos vs Panthyreatikos prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Panargiakos v Panthyreatikos: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Panargiakos v Panthyreatikos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.21 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.35 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.73, λaway = 0.62
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Panargiakos | – | 62.0% | 78.2% | 68.8% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 17.3% | 13.6% |
| 2 Panthyreatikos | – | 27.0% | 4.5% | 17.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Panargiakos | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -20.9% | |
| X · Draw | 13.6% | 7.33 | 5.20 | 19.2% | -29.0% | |
| 2 · Panthyreatikos | 17.5% | 5.70 | 20.00 | 5.0% | +251.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -15.9% | |
| X2 | 31.2% | 3.21 | 3.45 | 29.0% | +7.6% | |
| 12 | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -5.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Panargiakos | 79.7% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Panthyreatikos | 20.3% | 4.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.9% | 3.14 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.4% | 2.30 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -12.3% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -6.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.2% | 4.72 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.6% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 56.4% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.4% | 8.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.566 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.066 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Panargiakos | Panthyreatikos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDDDD | LLWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-5-0 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Panargiakos at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Panargiakos 6th on 9, Panthyreatikos 12th on 4.
Form
Panargiakos, last six: W D D D D D – one win in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Pelopas Kiatou. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Panthyreatikos, last six: L L W L D L – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to Asteras Vlachioti. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Panargiakos 1.73 · Panthyreatikos 0.62 · total 2.35. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 44%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.77. Most probable score: Panargiakos 1–0 Panthyreatikos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Gamma Ethniki Group 7 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Loutraki | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 2 |  Iraklis Xylokastro | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 |  Pelopas Kiatou | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Miltiadis Pyrgos | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Asteras Amaliadas | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 6 |  Panargiakos | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 |  Ermis Kiveriou | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 |  Panthouriakos | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Asteras Vlachioti | 7 | -6 | 6 |
| 10 |  Telos Agras | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 |  Korinthos | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 |  Panthyreatikos | 7 | -9 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Panargiakos vs Panthyreatikos?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Panargiakos v Panthyreatikos probabilities?
Panargiakos win 69%, draw 14%, Panthyreatikos win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Panargiakos vs Panthyreatikos?
Panargiakos 1–0 Panthyreatikos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Panargiakos vs Panthyreatikos?
Panargiakos 1.73, Panthyreatikos 0.62 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 44%.
What time is Panargiakos vs Panthyreatikos?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Gamma Ethniki Group 7.