- λ home
- 1.06
- λ away
- 0.91
- Σλ total
- 1.97
- P(over 2.5)
- 33%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.8%
KAC Kenitra vs Ittihad Khemisset prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
KAC Kenitra v Ittihad Khemisset: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for KAC Kenitra v Ittihad Khemisset are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 8 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAC Kenitra (home) | 1.36 | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Ittihad Khemisset (away) | 0.78 | 1.22 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.36 × 0.82 × 0.71 ≈ 0.79
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.59 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.79 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.12 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.97 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.06, λaway = 0.91
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 31.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 KAC Kenitra | 31.2% | 42.0% | 41.5% | 41.8% |
| X Draw | 37.4% | 19.0% | 31.0% | 24.0% |
| 2 Ittihad Khemisset | 31.4% | 39.0% | 27.5% | 34.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · KAC Kenitra | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -10.1% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.16 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -30.8% | |
| 2 · Ittihad Khemisset | 34.2% | 2.93 | 3.25 | 30.8% | +11.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -14.4% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -12.7% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB KAC Kenitra | 55.0% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ittihad Khemisset | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 33.5% | 2.99 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -12.3% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -4.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 13.7% | 7.29 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 86.3% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.4% | 2.11 | 2.16 | 46.3% | +2.3% | |
| BTTS no | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -17.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.1% | 3.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.6% | 4.42 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.665 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.042 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | KAC Kenitra | Ittihad Khemisset |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWDL | WDWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
KAC Kenitra ahead at 42%, against 34% for Ittihad Khemisset and 24% for the draw. Standings: KAC Kenitra 8th on 10, Ittihad Khemisset 2nd on 17.
Form
KAC Kenitra, last six: W D D W D L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Chabab Ben Guerir. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Ittihad Khemisset: W D W L W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 4–0 at home to Chabab Mohammédia. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG KAC Kenitra 1.06 · Ittihad Khemisset 0.91 · total 1.97. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: KAC Kenitra 1–0 Ittihad Khemisset. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Botola 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympique Dcheïra | 8 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Ittihad Khemisset | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Wydad Fès | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |  Yacoub El Mansour | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Stade Marocain | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 |  USM Oujda | 7 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 |  Mouloudia Oujda | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  KAC Kenitra | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique Khouribga | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Olympique Safi | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 |  El Massira | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Chabab Ben Guerir | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Union Sportive Boujaad | 8 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Riadi Salmi | 7 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 |  Chabab Atl. Khenifra | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 |  Chabab Mohammédia | 7 | -10 | 2 |
More Botola 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for KAC Kenitra vs Ittihad Khemisset?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the KAC Kenitra v Ittihad Khemisset probabilities?
KAC Kenitra win 42%, draw 24%, Ittihad Khemisset win 34%.
What is the most probable score for KAC Kenitra vs Ittihad Khemisset?
KAC Kenitra 1–0 Ittihad Khemisset is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for KAC Kenitra vs Ittihad Khemisset?
KAC Kenitra 1.06, Ittihad Khemisset 0.91 – over 2.5 at 33%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is KAC Kenitra vs Ittihad Khemisset?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Botola 2.