- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 0.97
- Σλ total
- 2.32
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.3%
Ceara B vs Vila Real prediction & xG model: Ceara B to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ceara B 48% · draw 23% · Vila Real 29%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ceara B v Vila Real: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Ceara B v Vila Real are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (2 and 6 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara B (home) | 1.66 | 1.01 | 0.66 | – |
| Vila Real (away) | 1.38 | 0.98 | 0.92 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.01 × 0.66 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.59 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.32 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 0.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 26.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ceara B | – | 57.0% | 35.8% | 48.1% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 29.3% | 22.8% |
| 2 Vila Real | – | 25.0% | 34.8% | 29.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ceara B pick | 48.1% | 2.08 | 2.49 | 40.2% | +19.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -30.8% | |
| 2 · Vila Real | 29.1% | 3.43 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -25.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -2.9% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -27.9% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ceara B | 62.3% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vila Real | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -12.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.7% | 3.26 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -3.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -14.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -2.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.6% | 4.06 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -22.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -4.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 42.8% | 2.33 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -16.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.8% | 3.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.4% | 4.67 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.481 × 2.49 − 1 = +0.198 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.133 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ceara B | Vila Real |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WL | WWDWDW |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-1 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Ceara B 48%, draw 23%, Vila Real 29%.
Form
Vila Real have four wins from their last six (W W D W D W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Ceara B. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Nov 2026): Vila Real 2–1 Ceara B. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ceara B 1.35 · Vila Real 0.97 · total 2.32. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Selection: Ceara B to win, probability 48%, odds 2.49 v fair 2.08. Most probable score: Ceara B 1–0 Vila Real. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 9 Nov 2026Vila Real2–1Ceara B
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ceara B vs Vila Real?
The Model pick is Ceara B to win with a model probability of 48, priced around 2.49 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ceara B v Vila Real probabilities?
Ceara B win 48%, draw 23%, Vila Real win 29%.
What is the most probable score for Ceara B vs Vila Real?
Ceara B 1–0 Vila Real is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ceara B vs Vila Real?
Ceara B 1.35, Vila Real 0.97 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Ceara B vs Vila Real?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Copa Fares Lopes.