- λ home
- 2.11
- λ away
- 0.91
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.8%
Oakleigh Cannons vs Marconi Stallions prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Oakleigh Cannons v Marconi Stallions: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Oakleigh Cannons v Marconi Stallions are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.11, λaway = 0.91
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oakleigh Cannons | – | 70.0% | 59.0% | 65.4% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 22.0% | 19.1% |
| 2 Marconi Stallions | – | 13.0% | 19.0% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Oakleigh Cannons | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +0.0% | |
| X · Draw | 19.1% | 5.23 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -21.7% | |
| 2 · Marconi Stallions | 15.5% | 6.44 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -26.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.4% | |
| X2 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -22.1% | |
| 12 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Oakleigh Cannons | 80.8% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Marconi Stallions | 19.2% | 5.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.6% | 4.85 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -10.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -20.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.3% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.2% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.794 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Oakleigh Cannons | Marconi Stallions |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWDW | LLDLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Oakleigh Cannons at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Oakleigh Cannons 2nd on 9, Marconi Stallions 4th on 2.
Form
Oakleigh Cannons have three wins from their last six (W D D W D W). Latest: 2–0 away at Sydney Olympic. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Marconi Stallions: L L D L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–4 at home to Bayswater City. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Marconi Stallions 0–0 Oakleigh Cannons. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Oakleigh Cannons 2.11 · Marconi Stallions 0.91 · total 3.03. High total: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 79%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.26. Most probable score: Oakleigh Cannons 2–0 Marconi Stallions. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Oct 2026Marconi Stallions0–0Oakleigh Cannons
Australian Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Melbourne | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Sydney United | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Sutherland Sharks | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Canberra FC | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 1 |  Wests APIA | 5 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 |  Broadmeadow Magic | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Avondale | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Adelaide City | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 |  Bayswater City | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Oakleigh Cannons | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 |  Sydney Olympic | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 |  Marconi Stallions | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 |  Lions | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Preston Lions | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 |  Wollongong Wolves | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 |  South Hobart | 4 | -4 | 3 |
More Australian Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Oakleigh Cannons vs Marconi Stallions?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Oakleigh Cannons v Marconi Stallions probabilities?
Oakleigh Cannons win 65%, draw 19%, Marconi Stallions win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Oakleigh Cannons vs Marconi Stallions?
Oakleigh Cannons 2–0 Marconi Stallions is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Oakleigh Cannons vs Marconi Stallions?
Oakleigh Cannons 2.11, Marconi Stallions 0.91 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Oakleigh Cannons vs Marconi Stallions?
Friday 13 November 2026, 09:30 WAT, at Jack Edwards Reserve – Australian Championship.