- λ home
- 1.00
- λ away
- 2.71
- Σλ total
- 3.71
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.0%
Cayman Islands vs Guyana prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Cayman Islands v Guyana: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–6
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Cayman Islands v Guyana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayman Islands (home) | 1.67 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| Guyana (away) | 1.82 | 1.66 | 1.11 | 3.35 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 0.54 × 0.71 ≈ 0.64
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.00 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.30 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.71 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.00, λaway = 2.71
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 11.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 73.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cayman Islands | 3.9% | 19.0% | 2.3% | 12.0% |
| X Draw | 9.0% | 20.0% | 6.3% | 14.3% |
| 2 Guyana | 87.1% | 61.0% | 91.3% | 73.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.053 → 5.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cayman Islands | 12.0% | 8.34 | 41.00 | 2.4% | +391.7% | |
| X · Draw | 14.3% | 7.01 | 15.00 | 6.7% | +113.9% | |
| 2 · Guyana | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -23.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 26.3% | 3.81 | 14.00 | 7.1% | +267.5% | |
| X2 | 88.0% | 1.14 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -11.1% | |
| 12 | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -13.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cayman Islands | 14.0% | 7.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Guyana | 86.0% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.6% | 1.12 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -9.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.4% | 9.66 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +3.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -14.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 24.0% | 4.16 | 4.60 | 21.7% | +10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -16.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.60 | 38.5% | +10.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.9% | 1.89 | 3.14 | 31.8% | +66.0% | |
| BTTS no | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -38.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.8% | 7.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.3% | 3.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.529 × 3.14 − 1 = +0.660 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.308 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cayman Islands | Guyana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLDLW | WWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 5-0-0 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 3.80 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.60 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 60% |
| BTTS | 17% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 40% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Guyana 74%, Cayman Islands 12%.
Form
Sequence for Cayman Islands: L L L D L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Puerto Rico. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Guyana, last five: W W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 8–1 at home to Dominica. Scoring rate: 3.8 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Guyana 2–0 Cayman Islands. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cayman Islands 1.00 · Guyana 2.71 · total 3.71. Goals expected – 76% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 3.14 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Cayman Islands 1–2 Guyana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 Sep 2026Guyana2–0Cayman Islands
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Martinique0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cayman Islands vs Guyana?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 3.14 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cayman Islands v Guyana probabilities?
Cayman Islands win 12%, draw 14%, Guyana win 74%.
What is the most probable score for Cayman Islands vs Guyana?
Cayman Islands 1–2 Guyana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cayman Islands vs Guyana?
Cayman Islands 1.00, Guyana 2.71 – over 2.5 at 76%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Cayman Islands vs Guyana?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Synthetic Track and Field Facility – CONCACAF Nations League.