- λ home
- 0.99
- λ away
- 2.77
- Σλ total
- 3.76
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 0–2 8.9%
Juventus W vs Lyon W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Juventus W v Lyon W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–6
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Juventus W v Lyon W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus W (home) | 1.66 | 1.27 | 0.41 | 0.87 |
| Lyon W (away) | 1.38 | 2.86 | 0.81 | 3.20 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.27 × 0.41 ≈ 0.87
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.07 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.70 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.81 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.76 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.99, λaway = 2.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 10.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 74.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 8.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Juventus W | 6.7% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 11.3% |
| X Draw | 11.5% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 13.6% |
| 2 Lyon W | 81.8% | 70.0% | 82.1% | 75.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.069 → 6.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Juventus W | 11.3% | 8.83 | 15.00 | 6.7% | +69.8% | |
| X · Draw | 13.6% | 7.35 | 8.00 | 12.5% | +8.9% | |
| 2 · Lyon W | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -14.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 24.9% | 4.01 | 6.50 | 15.4% | +62.1% | |
| X2 | 88.7% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -10.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Juventus W | 13.1% | 7.63 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lyon W | 86.9% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.2% | 1.13 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -5.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.8% | 8.48 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -11.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -10.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -2.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.0% | 1.72 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +21.9% | |
| BTTS no | 42.0% | 2.38 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -29.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.2% | 7.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 56.0% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.580 × 2.10 − 1 = +0.219 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.199 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Juventus W | Lyon W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLLL | WWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 5.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% |
| BTTS | 100% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Lyon W favoured on the road at 75% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Juventus W 8th on 6, Lyon W 1st on 10.
Form
Juventus W have three wins from their last six (W W W L L L). Latest: 2–1 at home to Sassuolo W. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Lyon W, last six: W W W W W W – six wins in total. Latest: 7–1 away at Lens W. Scoring rate: 5.3 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Juventus W 0.99 · Lyon W 2.77 · total 3.76. High total: over 2.5 73%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 2.10 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Juventus W 1–2 Lyon W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Champions League Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon W | 4 | +20 | 10 |
| 2 |  Barcelona W | 4 | +17 | 10 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich W | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Arsenal W | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 5 |  Chelsea W | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Manchester City W | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 7 |  Real Madrid W | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Juventus W | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 |  SL Benfica W | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 |  Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 11 |  Køge W | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Roma W | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Inter Milano W | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Servette Chênois W | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 15 |  Häcken W | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Paris FC W | 4 | -6 | 2 |
| 17 |  OH Leuven W | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 18 |  Austria Wien W | 4 | -6 | 1 |
More UEFA Champions League Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Juventus W vs Lyon W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 2.10 by the bookmakers.
What are the Juventus W v Lyon W probabilities?
Juventus W win 11%, draw 14%, Lyon W win 75%.
What is the most probable score for Juventus W vs Lyon W?
Juventus W 1–2 Lyon W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Juventus W vs Lyon W?
Juventus W 0.99, Lyon W 2.77 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Juventus W vs Lyon W?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 21:00 WAT, at Juventus Center – UEFA Champions League Women.