- λ home
- 0.95
- λ away
- 1.84
- Σλ total
- 2.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.3%
Novo Horizonte vs Atletico Itumbiara prediction & xG model: Atletico Itumbiara to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Novo Horizonte 18% · draw 24% · Atletico Itumbiara 58%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Novo Horizonte v Atletico Itumbiara: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Novo Horizonte v Atletico Itumbiara are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (4 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novo Horizonte (home) | 1.66 | 1.09 | 0.50 | – |
| Atletico Itumbiara (away) | 1.38 | 1.29 | 0.92 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.09 × 0.50 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.83 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.95, λaway = 1.84
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.4%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Novo Horizonte | – | 16.0% | 21.5% | 18.3% |
| X Draw | – | 23.0% | 25.5% | 24.0% |
| 2 Atletico Itumbiara | – | 61.0% | 53.1% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Novo Horizonte | 18.3% | 5.46 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -23.1% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.16 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -14.9% | |
| 2 · Atletico Itumbiara pick | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.3% | 2.36 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -19.1% | |
| X2 | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.9% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -9.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Novo Horizonte | 24.1% | 4.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atletico Itumbiara | 75.9% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 3.85 | 26.0% | -10.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -8.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -7.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -12.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -5.8% | |
| BTTS no | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -11.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.7% | 5.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.3% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.577 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 5 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Novo Horizonte | Atletico Itumbiara |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLW | WWWWD |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-2 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals against / match | 1.25 | 0.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 60% |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 100% |
| Failed to score | 25% | 20% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 58% against 18%. Standings: Novo Horizonte 3rd on 6, Atletico Itumbiara 1st on 13.
Form
Novo Horizonte have two wins from their last four (W L L W). Latest: 3–0 away at America GO. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Atletico Itumbiara have four wins from their last five (W W W W D). Latest: 4–0 at home to Royal. 2.6 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Novo Horizonte 0.95 · Atletico Itumbiara 1.84 · total 2.79. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Selection: Atletico Itumbiara to win, probability 58%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Novo Horizonte 0–1 Atletico Itumbiara. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Goiano 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Itumbiara | 5 | +13 | 13 |
| 2 |  Real Clube | 4 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 |  Novo Horizonte | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Itumbiara | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 |  Royal | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 6 |  America GO | 4 | -13 | 1 |
| 7 |  Rioverdense | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Novo Horizonte vs Atletico Itumbiara?
The Model pick is Atletico Itumbiara to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Novo Horizonte v Atletico Itumbiara probabilities?
Novo Horizonte win 18%, draw 24%, Atletico Itumbiara win 58%.
What is the most probable score for Novo Horizonte vs Atletico Itumbiara?
Novo Horizonte 0–1 Atletico Itumbiara is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Novo Horizonte vs Atletico Itumbiara?
Novo Horizonte 0.95, Atletico Itumbiara 1.84 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Novo Horizonte vs Atletico Itumbiara?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 19:30 WAT – Goiano 3.