- λ home
- 0.56
- λ away
- 2.44
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 0–2 14.9%
Os vs Brann prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Os v Brann: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Os v Brann are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (24 and 41 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Os (home) | 1.66 | 1.49 | 0.70 | 1.75 |
| Brann (away) | 1.38 | 1.48 | 0.92 | 1.87 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.49 × 0.70 ≈ 1.75
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.62 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.56, λaway = 2.44
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 6.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 79.0%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 14.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Os | 36.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% |
| X Draw | 22.6% | 25.0% | 10.9% | 19.1% |
| 2 Brann | 41.3% | 70.0% | 85.9% | 76.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Os | 4.2% | 23.57 | 29.00 | 3.4% | +23.1% | |
| X · Draw | 19.1% | 5.24 | 8.50 | 11.8% | +62.2% | |
| 2 · Brann | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -17.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 23.3% | 4.29 | 7.00 | 14.3% | +63.3% | |
| X2 | 95.8% | 1.04 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -2.3% | |
| 12 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -14.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Os | 5.2% | 19.07 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Brann | 94.8% | 1.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.6% | 1.97 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +3.8% | |
| BTTS no | 49.4% | 2.03 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -17.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 8.4% | 11.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.3% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 57.3% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.506 × 2.05 − 1 = +0.038 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.036 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Os | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWWW | LLDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 3.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Brann favoured on the road at 77% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Os, last six: L W W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–3 away at Fana. 3.2 goals a match in that spell.
Brann have two wins from their last six (L L D W W D). Latest: 0–2 away at Start. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Os 0.56 · Brann 2.44 · total 3.00. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.05 v fair 1.97. Most probable score: Os 1–2 Brann. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Start3Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Os vs Brann?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.05 by the bookmakers.
What are the Os v Brann probabilities?
Os win 4%, draw 19%, Brann win 77%.
What is the most probable score for Os vs Brann?
Os 1–2 Brann is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Os vs Brann?
Os 0.56, Brann 2.44 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Os vs Brann?
Wednesday 16 September 2026, 17:00 WAT – NM Cupen.