- λ home
- 1.63
- λ away
- 0.61
- Σλ total
- 2.23
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 17.4%
Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II prediction & xG model: Asteras Tripolis II to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Asteras Tripolis II v PAOK II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAsteras Tripolis II to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Asteras Tripolis II v PAOK II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis II (home) | 1.38 | 1.04 | 1.23 | 1.76 |
| PAOK II (away) | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.83 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.38 × 1.04 × 1.23 ≈ 1.76
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.59 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.23 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.63, λaway = 0.61
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 17.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Asteras Tripolis II | 58.6% | 75.0% | 46.1% | 62.9% |
| X Draw | 24.4% | 19.0% | 28.3% | 22.9% |
| 2 PAOK II | 17.0% | 6.0% | 25.6% | 14.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Asteras Tripolis II pick | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.93 | 51.8% | +21.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.9% | 4.37 | 3.15 | 31.7% | -27.9% | |
| 2 · PAOK II | 14.2% | 7.03 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -50.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.8% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 83.3% | +2.9% | |
| X2 | 37.1% | 2.69 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -38.4% | |
| 12 | 77.1% | 1.30 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Asteras Tripolis II | 81.5% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB PAOK II | 18.5% | 5.42 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -11.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -5.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -13.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -4.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -19.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -6.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -8.6% | |
| BTTS no | 50.9% | 1.97 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -9.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.9% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.5% | 7.99 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.629 × 1.93 − 1 = +0.214 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.230 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Asteras Tripolis II | PAOK II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDDDW | WDLWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Asteras Tripolis II at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Asteras Tripolis II 8th on 16, PAOK II 11th on 12.
Form
Sequence for Asteras Tripolis II: W D D D D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Nestos Chrisoupolis. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for PAOK II: W D L W L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 4–2 away at Pyrgos 1968. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Asteras Tripolis II 1.63 · PAOK II 0.61 · total 2.23. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Asteras Tripolis II to win, probability 63%, odds 1.93 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Asteras Tripolis II 1–0 PAOK II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super League 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marko | 10 | +13 | 26 |
| 2 |  Larisa | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 |  Kallithea | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 |  Panserraikos | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 |  Ellas Syros | 11 | +9 | 19 |
| 6 |  Niki Volos | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 |  Panionios | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Asteras Tripolis II | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 |  Panthrakikos | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Anagennisi Karditsas | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 |  PAOK II | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 12 |  Nestos Chrisoupolis | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 |  Pyrgos 1968 | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Apollon Pontou | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Olympiakos Piraeus II | 10 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 |  Zakynthos | 10 | -11 | 4 |
More Super League 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II?
The Model pick is Asteras Tripolis II to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.93 by the bookmakers.
What are the Asteras Tripolis II v PAOK II probabilities?
Asteras Tripolis II win 63%, draw 23%, PAOK II win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II?
Asteras Tripolis II 1–0 PAOK II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II?
Asteras Tripolis II 1.63, PAOK II 0.61 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Asteras Tripolis II vs PAOK II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Super League 2.