Sat 14 Nov 2026 Full time

Racing de Veracruz

WWDWL

17%P(1)21%P(X)62%P(2)

λ home: 0.92
λ away: 1.97
Σλ total: 2.89
P(over 2.5): 51%
P(BTTS): 50%
Modal score: 0–1 11.0%

Reboceros La Piedad vs Racing de Veracruz prediction & xG model: Racing de Veracruz to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Reboceros La Piedad v Racing de Veracruz: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipRacing de Veracruz to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Reboceros La Piedad v Racing de Veracruz are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Reboceros La Piedad (home)	1.46	1.03	0.69	1.05
Racing de Veracruz (away)	1.34	1.37	1.20	2.21

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.46 × 1.03 × 0.69 ≈ 1.05

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.26	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.30	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.54	30%
Blended total λ	2.89	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 0.92, λ_away = 1.97

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Reboceros La Piedad λ = 0.92

039.9%

136.7%

216.8%

35.1%

41.2%

5+0.3%

Racing de Veracruz λ = 1.97

013.9%

127.5%

227.1%

317.8%

48.8%

5+5.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Reb \ Rac012345+

05.611117.13.52.0

15.1109.96.53.21.8

22.34.64.63.01.50.8

30.71.41.40.9··

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 16.9%
Σ draw cells: 21.2%
Σ away-win cells: 61.9%
Most probable score: 0–1 · 11.0%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Reboceros La Piedad	16.7%	13.0%	22.4%	16.9%
X Draw	20.4%	17.0%	26.7%	21.1%
2 Racing de Veracruz	63.0%	70.0%	50.9%	62.0%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Reboceros La Piedad	16.9%	5.90	4.03	24.8%	-31.7%
X · Draw	21.1%	4.75	3.38	29.6%	-28.8%
2 · Racing de Veracruz pick	62.0%	1.61	1.77	56.5%	+9.7%
Double chance
1X	38.0%	2.63	1.82	54.9%	-30.8%
X2	83.1%	1.20	1.16	86.2%	-3.6%
12	78.9%	1.27	1.22	82.0%	-3.7%
Draw no bet
DNB Reboceros La Piedad	21.5%	4.66	–	–	–
DNB Racing de Veracruz	78.5%	1.27	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	74.4%	1.34	1.28	78.1%	-4.8%
Under 1.5	25.6%	3.90	3.05	32.8%	-21.9%
Over 2.5	50.9%	1.96	1.96	51.0%	-0.2%
Under 2.5	49.1%	2.04	1.72	58.1%	-15.6%
Over 3.5	29.6%	3.38	3.42	29.2%	+1.3%
Under 3.5	70.4%	1.42	1.23	81.3%	-13.4%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	49.6%	2.02	1.83	54.6%	-9.2%
BTTS no	50.4%	1.98	1.84	54.3%	-7.3%
Half-time
HT 1	16.4%	6.11	–	–	–
HT X	38.8%	2.58	–	–	–
HT 2	44.8%	2.23	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickRacing de Veracruz to win

Probability62.0%

Fair odds1.61

Best odds1.77

EV per unit+9.7%

EV = 0.620 × 1.77 − 1 = +0.097 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.126 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Reboceros La Piedad	Racing de Veracruz
Sequence	LLDLWD	LWDWWD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-2-3	3-2-1
Points per match	0.83	1.83
Goals for / match	1.17	1.50
Goals against / match	2.00	0.67
Over 2.5	83%	33%
BTTS	67%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	33%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Racing de Veracruz favoured on the road at 62% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.

Form

Reboceros La Piedad, last six: L L D L W D – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Pioneros de Cancún. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Racing de Veracruz, last six: L W D W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Irapuato. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Reboceros La Piedad 0.92 · Racing de Veracruz 1.97 · total 2.89. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 50%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Racing de Veracruz to win, probability 62%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Reboceros La Piedad 0–1 Racing de Veracruz. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.