- λ home
- 2.23
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 3.12
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.9%
Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Machida Zelvia v Tochigi City: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Machida Zelvia v Tochigi City are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (39 and 36 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia (home) | 1.66 | 1.26 | 1.19 | 2.49 |
| Tochigi City (away) | 1.38 | 1.07 | 0.39 | 0.57 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.26 × 1.19 ≈ 2.49
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.07 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.12 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.23, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Machida Zelvia | 78.6% | 66.0% | 67.2% | 66.5% |
| X Draw | 15.0% | 23.0% | 17.9% | 20.8% |
| 2 Tochigi City | 6.4% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 12.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Machida Zelvia | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -11.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.80 | 5.00 | 20.0% | +4.2% | |
| 2 · Tochigi City | 12.6% | 7.91 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -24.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.4% | 1.14 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -3.0% | |
| X2 | 33.5% | 2.99 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +0.5% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -9.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Machida Zelvia | 84.0% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tochigi City | 16.0% | 6.26 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.3% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.7% | 5.66 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -2.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -3.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -11.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.0% | 1.69 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +3.3% | |
| BTTS no | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -18.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.4% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.6% | 6.87 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.590 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.044 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Machida Zelvia | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWWD | LDWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Machida Zelvia at 67%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Machida Zelvia, last six: L W D W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–4 at home to Kashiwa Reysol. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Tochigi City, last six: L D W W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–3 at home to Vegalta Sendai. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Machida Zelvia 2.23 · Tochigi City 0.89 · total 3.12. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Machida Zelvia 2–1 Tochigi City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Sagan Tosu0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Machida Zelvia v Tochigi City probabilities?
Machida Zelvia win 67%, draw 21%, Tochigi City win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City?
Machida Zelvia 2–1 Tochigi City is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City?
Machida Zelvia 2.23, Tochigi City 0.89 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City?
Wednesday 23 September 2026, 09:00 WAT, at Machida GION Stadium – Emperor Cup.