- λ home
- 1.73
- λ away
- 1.32
- Σλ total
- 3.04
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.8%
Al-Kawkab vs Najran prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Al-Kawkab 51% · draw 17% · Najran 33%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Al-Kawkab v Najran: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Al-Kawkab v Najran are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.38 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.76 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.04 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.73, λaway = 1.32
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 47.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Al-Kawkab | – | 47.0% | 55.4% | 50.5% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 24.4% | 16.6% |
| 2 Najran | – | 42.0% | 20.3% | 32.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Al-Kawkab | 50.5% | 1.98 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -18.7% | |
| X · Draw | 16.6% | 6.02 | 3.66 | 27.3% | -39.2% | |
| 2 · Najran | 32.9% | 3.04 | 4.40 | 22.7% | +44.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -24.8% | |
| X2 | 49.5% | 2.02 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -1.0% | |
| 12 | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -1.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Al-Kawkab | 60.6% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Najran | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -6.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -19.3% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -2.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -14.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -2.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -12.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -10.7% | |
| BTTS no | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -7.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.9% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.0% | 4.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.554 × 1.76 − 1 = -0.025 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Al-Kawkab | Najran |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWWD | LDLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Al-Kawkab ahead at 51%, against 33% for Najran and 17% for the draw. Standings: Al-Kawkab 6th on 10, Najran 27th on 4.
Form
Al-Kawkab, last six: W D L W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 3–1 away at Jubbah. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Najran: L D L W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Al Najoom. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Al-Kawkab 1.73 · Najran 1.32 · total 3.04. Goals expected – 55% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 55%, odds 1.76 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Al-Kawkab 2–1 Najran. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Division 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Sharq | 6 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 |  Al Sahel | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Al-Wajj | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Al Qalah | 5 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 |  Al Arabi SC | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 |  Al-Kawkab | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 |  Baish | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |  Al Safa | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Al-Ain | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 10 |  Al Qwarah | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Al Entesar | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 |  Arar | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 |  Al Taraji | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Al Nairyah | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Al Rawdhah | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 |  Al Shoalah | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 17 |  Al-Washm | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 |  Al Najoom | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 19 |  Al Loa | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 |  Jerash | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 21 |  Al Hada | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 22 |  Al Gottah | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Al Rayan | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 24 |  Qilwah | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 25 |  Al Jubail | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 26 |  Afif | 7 | -5 | 5 |
| 27 |  Najran | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 28 |  Al Qous | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 29 |  Al Baten | 5 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 |  Jubbah | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |  Mudhar Club | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 |  Hetten FC | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Al-Kawkab vs Najran?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.76 by the bookmakers.
What are the Al-Kawkab v Najran probabilities?
Al-Kawkab win 51%, draw 17%, Najran win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Al-Kawkab vs Najran?
Al-Kawkab 2–1 Najran is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Al-Kawkab vs Najran?
Al-Kawkab 1.73, Najran 1.32 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Al-Kawkab vs Najran?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:05 WAT – Division 2.