- λ home
- 1.42
- λ away
- 1.60
- Σλ total
- 3.02
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.1%
Hetten FC vs Mudhar Club prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Hetten FC v Mudhar Club: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Hetten FC v Mudhar Club are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 8 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hetten FC (home) | 1.47 | 0.86 | 1.13 | 1.43 |
| Mudhar Club (away) | 1.33 | 0.95 | 1.34 | 1.69 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.47 × 0.86 × 1.13 ≈ 1.43
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.12 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.02 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.42, λaway = 1.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 42.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hetten FC | 32.1% | 36.0% | 34.3% | 35.3% |
| X Draw | 24.6% | 17.0% | 27.5% | 21.4% |
| 2 Mudhar Club | 43.3% | 47.0% | 38.2% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Hetten FC | 35.3% | 2.84 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -8.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Mudhar Club | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.33 | 42.9% | +0.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -17.8% | |
| X2 | 64.7% | 1.54 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -12.0% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Hetten FC | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mudhar Club | 55.1% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -4.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -23.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.88 | 53.2% | +0.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -16.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +2.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -14.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -1.2% | |
| BTTS no | 41.5% | 2.41 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -18.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.8% | 3.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.7% | 3.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.585 × 1.69 − 1 = -0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Hetten FC | Mudhar Club |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDWLL | LDLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 43% against 35%. Standings: Hetten FC 32nd on 0, Mudhar Club 31st on 2.
Form
Sequence for Hetten FC: L L D W L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–4 at home to Al Gottah. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Mudhar Club, last six: L D L D W W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to Al Sahel. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Hetten FC 1.42 · Mudhar Club 1.60 · total 3.02. High total: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.69 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Hetten FC 1–2 Mudhar Club. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Division 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Sharq | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 |  Al Sahel | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Al-Wajj | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 4 |  Al Qalah | 5 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 |  Al Entesar | 7 | +2 | 11 |
| 6 |  Al Arabi SC | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 |  Al-Ain | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Al-Kawkab | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Al Shoalah | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 |  Baish | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 |  Al Loa | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 |  Al Safa | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |  Al Hada | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 14 |  Al Taraji | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 |  Al Qwarah | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 |  Arar | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 |  Al Nairyah | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 |  Al Rawdhah | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 |  Al-Washm | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 20 |  Al Najoom | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 |  Jerash | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 22 |  Al Gottah | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 |  Al Rayan | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 24 |  Al Jubail | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 25 |  Jubbah | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 26 |  Qilwah | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 27 |  Afif | 7 | -5 | 5 |
| 28 |  Al Qous | 7 | -6 | 5 |
| 29 |  Najran | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 30 |  Al Baten | 5 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 |  Mudhar Club | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 |  Hetten FC | 2 | -4 | 0 |
More Division 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Hetten FC vs Mudhar Club?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.69 by the bookmakers.
What are the Hetten FC v Mudhar Club probabilities?
Hetten FC win 35%, draw 21%, Mudhar Club win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Hetten FC vs Mudhar Club?
Hetten FC 1–2 Mudhar Club is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Hetten FC vs Mudhar Club?
Hetten FC 1.42, Mudhar Club 1.60 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Hetten FC vs Mudhar Club?
Friday 13 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – Division 2.