- λ home
- 2.40
- λ away
- 0.65
- Σλ total
- 3.05
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 2–0 13.6%
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin vs Unirea Bascov prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Unirea Bascov: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Unirea Bascov are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.09 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.05 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.40, λaway = 0.65
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 76.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 13.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | – | 71.0% | 79.6% | 74.6% |
| X Draw | – | 22.0% | 14.4% | 18.8% |
| 2 Unirea Bascov | – | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -16.5% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.32 | 6.20 | 16.1% | +16.5% | |
| 2 · Unirea Bascov | 6.6% | 15.14 | 14.70 | 6.8% | -2.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 93.4% | 1.07 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 25.4% | 3.94 | 4.40 | 22.7% | +11.8% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -15.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 91.9% | 1.09 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Unirea Bascov | 8.1% | 12.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.8% | 5.05 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -11.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -8.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -7.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -12.4% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -7.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.4% | 2.06 | 2.36 | 42.4% | +14.3% | |
| BTTS no | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -22.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 55.3% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.7% | 2.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 10.0% | 10.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.624 × 1.48 − 1 = -0.076 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | Unirea Bascov |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWW | LWLWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin at 75%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 1st on 29, Unirea Bascov 8th on 15.
Form
Sequence for CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin: W D W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 4–2 away at Petrolul Hartiesti. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Unirea Bascov: L W L W L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 at home to Păușești. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Unirea Bascov 0–2 CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 2.40 · Unirea Bascov 0.65 · total 3.05. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 62%, odds 1.48 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 2–0 Unirea Bascov. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 4 Sep 2026Unirea Bascov0–2CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin
Liga III Serie 6 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 12 | +21 | 29 |
| 2 |  CSM Targu Jiu | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 3 |  Minerul Lupeni | 12 | +5 | 23 |
| 4 |  CS U Craiova II | 12 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  Păușești | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 6 |  Jiul Petroşani | 12 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 |  Oltul Curtişoara | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Unirea Bascov | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Filiaşi | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Academica Balș | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 |  Petrolul Hartiesti | 12 | -37 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin vs Unirea Bascov?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.48 by the bookmakers.
What are the CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Unirea Bascov probabilities?
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win 75%, draw 19%, Unirea Bascov win 7%.
What is the most probable score for CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin vs Unirea Bascov?
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 2–0 Unirea Bascov is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin vs Unirea Bascov?
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 2.40, Unirea Bascov 0.65 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin vs Unirea Bascov?
Friday 13 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Liga III Serie 6.