- λ home
- 1.55
- λ away
- 1.51
- Σλ total
- 3.06
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Râmnicu Sărat vs Viitorul Corbeanca prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Râmnicu Sărat v Viitorul Corbeanca: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Râmnicu Sărat v Viitorul Corbeanca are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.29 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.86 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.06 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.55, λaway = 1.51
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Râmnicu Sărat | – | 44.0% | 35.1% | 40.3% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.9% | 21.2% |
| 2 Viitorul Corbeanca | – | 39.0% | 38.0% | 38.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.197 → 19.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Râmnicu Sărat | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -4.2% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -34.4% | |
| 2 · Viitorul Corbeanca | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -15.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.8% | |
| X2 | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -25.3% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -10.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Râmnicu Sărat | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Viitorul Corbeanca | 48.9% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 5.23 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -13.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -20.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.5% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -13.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.1% | 2.50 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -21.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.9% | 3.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.9% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.599 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.137 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Râmnicu Sărat | Viitorul Corbeanca |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDWL | DLLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 4.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 21 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Râmnicu Sărat 9th on 12, Viitorul Corbeanca 11th on 8.
Form
Râmnicu Sărat have two wins from their last six (L L W D W L). Latest: 1–8 away at Tunari. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Viitorul Corbeanca, last six: D L L D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Pucioasa. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Viitorul Corbeanca 0–0 Râmnicu Sărat. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Râmnicu Sărat 1.55 · Viitorul Corbeanca 1.51 · total 3.06. High total: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Râmnicu Sărat 2–1 Viitorul Corbeanca. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Sep 2026Viitorul Corbeanca0–0Râmnicu Sărat
Liga III Serie 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flacăra Moreni | 12 | +38 | 34 |
| 2 |  Tunari | 12 | +23 | 29 |
| 3 |  Berca | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 4 |  Blejoi | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 |  Voința Crevedia | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 |  Urban Titu | 12 | -6 | 15 |
| 7 |  Pucioasa | 12 | -4 | 13 |
| 8 |  Progresul Draganesti | 12 | -9 | 13 |
| 9 |  Râmnicu Sărat | 12 | -17 | 12 |
| 10 |  Plopeni | 12 | -12 | 11 |
| 11 |  Viitorul Corbeanca | 12 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 |  Păuleşti | 12 | -13 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Râmnicu Sărat vs Viitorul Corbeanca?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Râmnicu Sărat v Viitorul Corbeanca probabilities?
Râmnicu Sărat win 40%, draw 21%, Viitorul Corbeanca win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Râmnicu Sărat vs Viitorul Corbeanca?
Râmnicu Sărat 2–1 Viitorul Corbeanca is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Râmnicu Sărat vs Viitorul Corbeanca?
Râmnicu Sărat 1.55, Viitorul Corbeanca 1.51 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Râmnicu Sărat vs Viitorul Corbeanca?
Friday 13 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Liga III Serie 3.