- λ home
- 0.87
- λ away
- 1.56
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 0–1 13.7%
Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani prediction & xG model: Club Guarani to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Deportivo Recoleta 19% · draw 26% · Club Guarani 55%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Deportivo Recoleta v Club Guarani: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Deportivo Recoleta v Club Guarani are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Recoleta (home) | 1.27 | 0.91 | 0.74 | 0.86 |
| Club Guarani (away) | 1.27 | 0.90 | 1.27 | 1.45 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.27 × 0.91 × 0.74 ≈ 0.86
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.31 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.42 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.87, λaway = 1.56
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 53.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 13.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Recoleta | 21.9% | 6.0% | 24.5% | 19.3% |
| X Draw | 28.2% | 22.0% | 26.6% | 26.1% |
| 2 Club Guarani | 49.9% | 72.0% | 48.9% | 54.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.105 → 10.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Recoleta | 19.3% | 5.19 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -28.7% | |
| X · Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -11.3% | |
| 2 · Club Guarani pick | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +1.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 45.4% | 2.20 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -18.3% | |
| X2 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.9% | |
| 12 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -5.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Recoleta | 26.1% | 3.83 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Club Guarani | 73.9% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -0.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.2% | 2.16 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -9.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -0.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -14.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -13.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.1% | 5.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 37.9% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.546 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.010 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.012 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Recoleta | Club Guarani |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWWDW | WWLDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 55% against 19%. Standings: Deportivo Recoleta 11th on 16, Club Guarani 5th on 31.
Form
Deportivo Recoleta have three wins from their last six (D L W W D W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Libertad Asuncion. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Club Guarani: W W L D D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to 2 de Mayo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Deportivo Recoleta 0, Club Guarani 2, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Club Guarani 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Recoleta 0.87 · Club Guarani 1.56 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Selection: Club Guarani to win, probability 55%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 Club Guarani. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 7 Sep 2026Club Guarani2–0Deportivo Recoleta
- 19 Mar 2026Club Guarani3–1Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional Clausura table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpia | 19 | +23 | 42 |
| 2 |  Sportivo Trinidense | 19 | +13 | 34 |
| 3 |  Libertad Asuncion | 19 | +8 | 33 |
| 4 |  Nacional Asuncion | 19 | +12 | 32 |
| 5 |  Club Guarani | 19 | +4 | 31 |
| 6 |  2 de Mayo | 19 | -3 | 30 |
| 7 |  Cerro Porteno | 19 | +5 | 28 |
| 8 |  Sportivo Luqueno | 19 | -8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sportivo Ameliano | 19 | -9 | 19 |
| 10 |  Rubio NU | 19 | -15 | 17 |
| 11 |  Deportivo Recoleta | 19 | -12 | 16 |
| 12 |  Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 19 | -18 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani?
The Model pick is Club Guarani to win with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Recoleta v Club Guarani probabilities?
Deportivo Recoleta win 19%, draw 26%, Club Guarani win 55%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani?
Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 Club Guarani is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani?
Deportivo Recoleta 0.87, Club Guarani 1.56 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 00:00 WAT – Division Profesional Clausura.