Italy Coppa Italia
Wed 2 Sep 2026
Full time
- λ home
- 2.27
- λ away
- 1.04
- Σλ total
- 3.31
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.8%
Sassuolo vs Frosinone prediction & xG model: Sassuolo to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sassuolo v Frosinone: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipSassuolo to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Sassuolo v Frosinone are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (home) | 1.66 | 1.16 | 0.76 | 1.46 |
| Frosinone (away) | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.06 | 2.11 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.16 × 0.76 ≈ 1.46
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.57 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.74 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.31 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.27, λaway = 1.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sassuolo | 26.2% | 75.0% | 50.7% | 64.8% |
| X Draw | 21.8% | 15.0% | 25.9% | 19.6% |
| 2 Frosinone | 52.0% | 10.0% | 23.3% | 15.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.071 → 7.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sassuolo pick | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.84 | 54.3% | +19.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.6% | 5.10 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -29.5% | |
| 2 · Frosinone | 15.6% | 6.41 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -37.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.4% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +3.0% | |
| X2 | 35.2% | 2.84 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -32.8% | |
| 12 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sassuolo | 80.6% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Frosinone | 19.4% | 5.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +1.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.8% | 4.80 | 3.65 | 27.4% | -23.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | 2.38 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -18.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +12.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -13.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +1.6% | |
| BTTS no | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -15.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.2% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.2% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.6% | 6.04 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.648 × 1.84 − 1 = +0.192 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.229 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sassuolo | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLD | WLWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sassuolo at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Sequence for Sassuolo: W L W L L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Torino. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Frosinone have two wins from their last six (W L W L D D). Latest: 3–0 away at Fiorentina. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sassuolo 2.27 · Frosinone 1.04 · total 3.31. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Sassuolo to win, probability 65%, odds 1.84 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Sassuolo 2–1 Frosinone. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More Coppa Italia predictions
League page →
Udinese2
Venezia1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
The Model pick is Sassuolo to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.84 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sassuolo v Frosinone probabilities?
Sassuolo win 65%, draw 20%, Frosinone win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Sassuolo 2–1 Frosinone is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Sassuolo 2.27, Frosinone 1.04 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Wednesday 2 September 2026, 14:00 WAT – Coppa Italia.