- λ home
- 1.92
- λ away
- 1.73
- Σλ total
- 3.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 8.6%
1º Dezembro vs Santa Clara B prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: 1º Dezembro 35% · draw 37% · Santa Clara B 27%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
1º Dezembro v Santa Clara B: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for 1º Dezembro v Santa Clara B are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 5.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.53 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.92, λaway = 1.73
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 8.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 1º Dezembro | – | 25.0% | 49.5% | 35.3% |
| X Draw | – | 45.0% | 26.8% | 37.4% |
| 2 Santa Clara B | – | 30.0% | 23.7% | 27.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · 1º Dezembro | 35.3% | 2.83 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -36.5% | |
| X · Draw | 37.4% | 2.68 | 3.32 | 30.1% | +24.1% | |
| 2 · Santa Clara B | 27.3% | 3.66 | 3.76 | 26.6% | +2.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -15.0% | |
| X2 | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.77 | 56.5% | +14.5% | |
| 12 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -23.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB 1º Dezembro | 56.3% | 1.78 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Santa Clara B | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +1.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.8% | 4.80 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -36.5% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.98 | 50.5% | +15.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.5% | 2.41 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -29.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 3.42 | 29.2% | +30.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -23.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.82 | 54.9% | +0.2% | |
| BTTS no | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -18.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.9% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.2% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.9% | 3.34 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.585 × 1.98 − 1 = +0.158 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.161 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | 1º Dezembro | Santa Clara B |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWDD | LWDWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: 1º Dezembro 35%, draw 37%, Santa Clara B 27%.
Form
Sequence for 1º Dezembro: W L W W D D, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Juventude Évora. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Santa Clara B, last six: L W D W D L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–3 away at Imortal Albufeira. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG 1º Dezembro 1.92 · Santa Clara B 1.73 · total 3.65. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 58%, odds 1.98 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: 1º Dezembro 2–2 Santa Clara B. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for 1º Dezembro vs Santa Clara B?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.98 by the bookmakers.
What are the 1º Dezembro v Santa Clara B probabilities?
1º Dezembro win 35%, draw 37%, Santa Clara B win 27%.
What is the most probable score for 1º Dezembro vs Santa Clara B?
1º Dezembro 2–2 Santa Clara B is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for 1º Dezembro vs Santa Clara B?
1º Dezembro 1.92, Santa Clara B 1.73 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is 1º Dezembro vs Santa Clara B?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Campo Conde de Sucena – Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D.