- λ home
- 1.38
- λ away
- 2.69
- Σλ total
- 4.08
- P(over 2.5)
- 77%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–2 8.5%
Plymouth U21 vs Leicester City U21 prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Plymouth U21 19% · draw 13% · Leicester City U21 67%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Plymouth U21 v Leicester City U21: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Plymouth U21 v Leicester City U21 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (3 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth U21 (home) | 1.66 | 0.91 | 1.07 | – |
| Leicester City U21 (away) | 1.38 | 0.87 | 1.51 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.91 × 1.07 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.17 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.00 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 4.08 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.38, λaway = 2.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 65.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 8.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Plymouth U21 | – | 23.0% | 14.6% | 19.5% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 16.8% | 13.4% |
| 2 Leicester City U21 | – | 66.0% | 68.6% | 67.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Plymouth U21 | 19.5% | 5.13 | 6.10 | 16.4% | +18.8% | |
| X · Draw | 13.4% | 7.44 | 5.30 | 18.9% | -28.7% | |
| 2 · Leicester City U21 | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -12.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.84 | 35.2% | -6.5% | |
| X2 | 80.5% | 1.24 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -16.3% | |
| 12 | 86.6% | 1.16 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -7.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Plymouth U21 | 22.5% | 4.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Leicester City U21 | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.4% | 1.11 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.6% | 10.40 | 8.50 | 11.8% | -18.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 23.3% | 4.29 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -11.5% | |
| Over 3.5 pick | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -8.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 42.0% | 2.38 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -8.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -16.7% | |
| BTTS no | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +6.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.0% | 5.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.0% | 3.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 50.0% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.580 × 1.58 − 1 = -0.083 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Plymouth U21 | Leicester City U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLL | DLLWLD |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-0-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Leicester City U21 favoured on the road at 67% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Plymouth U21, last three: L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–6 away at AFC Bournemouth U21. Per match: 1.3 scored, 4.0 conceded.
Leicester City U21, last six: D L L W L D – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Nottingham Forest U21. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Leicester City U21 3–1 Plymouth U21. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Plymouth U21 1.38 · Leicester City U21 2.69 · total 4.08. High total: over 2.5 77%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 58%, odds 1.58 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Plymouth U21 1–3 Leicester City U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Aug 2026Leicester City U213–1Plymouth U21
Premier League Cup table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ipswich Town U21 | 6 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 |  Charlton Athletic U21 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Leicester City U21 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Preston North End U21 | 6 | -5 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Plymouth U21 vs Leicester City U21?
The Model pick is Over 3.5 goals with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.58 by the bookmakers.
What are the Plymouth U21 v Leicester City U21 probabilities?
Plymouth U21 win 19%, draw 13%, Leicester City U21 win 67%.
What is the most probable score for Plymouth U21 vs Leicester City U21?
Plymouth U21 1–3 Leicester City U21 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Plymouth U21 vs Leicester City U21?
Plymouth U21 1.38, Leicester City U21 2.69 – over 2.5 at 77%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Plymouth U21 vs Leicester City U21?
Monday 16 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Premier League Cup.