- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.86
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.8%
Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Virtus Francavilla 64% · draw 19% · Real Aversa 17%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Virtus Francavilla v Real Aversa: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Virtus Francavilla v Real Aversa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.82 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.79 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.86
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Virtus Francavilla | – | 71.0% | 54.7% | 64.1% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 24.1% | 18.8% |
| 2 Real Aversa | – | 14.0% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Virtus Francavilla | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.63 | 61.3% | +4.6% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.31 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -30.4% | |
| 2 · Real Aversa | 17.0% | 5.87 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -28.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.0% | 1.21 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -6.2% | |
| X2 | 35.9% | 2.79 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -29.4% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -4.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Virtus Francavilla | 79.0% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Aversa | 21.0% | 4.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.2% | 4.14 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -13.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -7.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -8.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 3.18 | 2.81 | 35.6% | -11.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -8.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.71 | 58.5% | +1.2% | |
| BTTS no | 40.8% | 2.45 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -20.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.2% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.5% | 6.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.758 × 1.21 − 1 = -0.082 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Virtus Francavilla | Real Aversa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLW | DDWDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Virtus Francavilla 64% to win. Standings: Virtus Francavilla 1st on 27, Real Aversa 11th on 14.
Form
Virtus Francavilla, last six: W W W W L W – five wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Francavilla. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Real Aversa, last six: D D W D D L – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Manfredonia. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Virtus Francavilla 1.95 · Real Aversa 0.86 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.21 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Virtus Francavilla 2–0 Real Aversa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone H table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Virtus Francavilla | 11 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Martina Franca | 11 | +9 | 22 |
| 3 |  Brindisi | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gravina | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 |  Turris | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Manfredonia | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Gladiator | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Fidelis Andria | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Bisceglie | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  USD Palmese | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Normanna | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Nocerina | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Real Forio 2014 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Melfi | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Ebolitana | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Ischia | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Francavilla | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 |  Nardò | 11 | -9 | 7 |
More Serie D Girone H predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.21 by the bookmakers.
What are the Virtus Francavilla v Real Aversa probabilities?
Virtus Francavilla win 64%, draw 19%, Real Aversa win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa?
Virtus Francavilla 2–0 Real Aversa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa?
Virtus Francavilla 1.95, Real Aversa 0.86 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Virtus Francavilla vs Real Aversa?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadio Giovanni Paolo II – Serie D Girone H.