- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 0.90
- Σλ total
- 2.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.3%
Derthona vs Fezzanese prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Derthona 54% · draw 25% · Fezzanese 21%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Derthona v Fezzanese: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Derthona v Fezzanese are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derthona (home) | 1.40 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 1.50 |
| Fezzanese (away) | 1.20 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 0.88 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 0.98 × 1.09 ≈ 1.50
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.38 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.55 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.54 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 0.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 53.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Derthona | 50.7% | 64.0% | 52.3% | 54.4% |
| X Draw | 27.6% | 18.0% | 26.1% | 24.7% |
| 2 Fezzanese | 21.8% | 18.0% | 21.7% | 20.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Derthona | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -6.4% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -14.7% | |
| 2 · Fezzanese | 20.8% | 4.80 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -13.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.0% | |
| X2 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -14.3% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Derthona | 72.3% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fezzanese | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.7% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.3% | 3.41 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -10.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -7.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.6% | 4.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.79 | 55.9% | +2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -20.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 37.9% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.6% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.5% | 5.41 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.573 × 1.79 − 1 = +0.025 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.031 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Derthona | Fezzanese |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDLL | DLWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Derthona 54%, draw 25%, Fezzanese 21%. Standings: Derthona 4th on 19, Fezzanese 15th on 11.
Form
Sequence for Derthona: W W D D L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Gozzano. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Fezzanese, last six: D L W L L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Borgosesia. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Derthona 1.57 · Fezzanese 0.90 · total 2.47. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.79 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: Derthona 2–1 Fezzanese. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Derthona vs Fezzanese?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.79 by the bookmakers.
What are the Derthona v Fezzanese probabilities?
Derthona win 54%, draw 25%, Fezzanese win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Derthona vs Fezzanese?
Derthona 2–1 Fezzanese is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Derthona vs Fezzanese?
Derthona 1.57, Fezzanese 0.90 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Derthona vs Fezzanese?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Serie D Girone A.