- λ home
- 2.00
- λ away
- 0.97
- Σλ total
- 2.97
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.2%
West Ham United U21 vs Juventus U21 prediction & xG model: West Ham United U21 to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
West Ham United U21 v Juventus U21: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipWest Ham United U21 to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for West Ham United U21 v Juventus U21 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 3 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United U21 (home) | 1.66 | 1.10 | 0.91 | – |
| Juventus U21 (away) | 1.38 | 0.80 | 1.03 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.10 × 0.91 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.16 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.97 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.00, λaway = 0.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 West Ham United U21 | – | 73.0% | 49.2% | 63.0% |
| X Draw | – | 12.0% | 25.3% | 17.6% |
| 2 Juventus U21 | – | 15.0% | 25.5% | 19.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · West Ham United U21 pick | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.81 | 55.2% | +14.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.6% | 5.68 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -38.1% | |
| 2 · Juventus U21 | 19.4% | 5.16 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -32.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.3% | |
| X2 | 37.0% | 2.70 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -34.9% | |
| 12 | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -1.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB West Ham United U21 | 76.5% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventus U21 | 23.5% | 4.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.7% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.3% | 4.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -12.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.9% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -4.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.5% | 2.66 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -14.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -3.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.0% | 1.69 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -13.8% | |
| BTTS no | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -1.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.1% | 5.85 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.630 × 1.81 − 1 = +0.141 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.174 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | West Ham United U21 | Juventus U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWLL | DL |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 0-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 0% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
West Ham United U21 at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
West Ham United U21, last six: D L L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Birmingham City U21. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG West Ham United U21 2.00 · Juventus U21 0.97 · total 2.97. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: West Ham United U21 to win, probability 63%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: West Ham United U21 2–0 Juventus U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Paris Saint-Germain U212Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for West Ham United U21 vs Juventus U21?
The Model pick is West Ham United U21 to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the West Ham United U21 v Juventus U21 probabilities?
West Ham United U21 win 63%, draw 18%, Juventus U21 win 19%.
What is the most probable score for West Ham United U21 vs Juventus U21?
West Ham United U21 2–0 Juventus U21 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for West Ham United U21 vs Juventus U21?
West Ham United U21 2.00, Juventus U21 0.97 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is West Ham United U21 vs Juventus U21?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Chigwell Construction Stadium – Premier League International Cup.