- λ home
- 1.31
- λ away
- 1.57
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.5%
Panagriniakos vs Pallixouriakos prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Panagriniakos 35% · draw 19% · Pallixouriakos 46%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Panagriniakos v Pallixouriakos: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Panagriniakos v Pallixouriakos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.29 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.54 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.31, λaway = 1.57
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Panagriniakos | – | 36.0% | 32.8% | 34.6% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 30.0% | 19.0% |
| 2 Pallixouriakos | – | 53.0% | 37.2% | 46.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Panagriniakos | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -4.7% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.27 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -43.0% | |
| 2 · Pallixouriakos | 46.4% | 2.16 | 2.42 | 41.3% | +12.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.6% | 1.86 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -22.2% | |
| X2 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.32 | 75.8% | +6.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Panagriniakos | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pallixouriakos | 57.2% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -1.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -16.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 47.6% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.1% | 3.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.508 × 1.95 − 1 = -0.010 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Panagriniakos | Pallixouriakos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDLWL | LWWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 46% against 35%. Standings: Panagriniakos 10th on 7, Pallixouriakos 6th on 10.
Form
Panagriniakos, last six: W L D L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Lefkimmi. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Sequence for Pallixouriakos: L W W W L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Panegialios. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Panagriniakos 1.31 · Pallixouriakos 1.57 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 51%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.97. Most probable score: Panagriniakos 1–2 Pallixouriakos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Gamma Ethniki Group 6 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panegialios | 7 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 |  Panachaiki FC | 7 | +17 | 18 |
| 3 |  Preveza | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |  Atromitos Patras | 7 | +9 | 14 |
| 5 |  Tilikratis | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 |  Pallixouriakos | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 |  Aris Filiates | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 |  Plataria | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Agios Matthaios | 7 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Panagriniakos | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 11 |  Lefkimmi | 7 | -13 | 3 |
| 12 |  Levante | 7 | -20 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Panagriniakos vs Pallixouriakos?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Panagriniakos v Pallixouriakos probabilities?
Panagriniakos win 35%, draw 19%, Pallixouriakos win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Panagriniakos vs Pallixouriakos?
Panagriniakos 1–2 Pallixouriakos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Panagriniakos vs Pallixouriakos?
Panagriniakos 1.31, Pallixouriakos 1.57 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Panagriniakos vs Pallixouriakos?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Gamma Ethniki Group 6.