- λ home
- 1.33
- λ away
- 1.08
- Σλ total
- 2.41
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
PAS Giannina vs Eordaikos prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
PAS Giannina v Eordaikos: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for PAS Giannina v Eordaikos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 6 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAS Giannina (home) | 1.47 | 1.11 | 0.81 | 1.33 |
| Eordaikos (away) | 1.05 | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.47 × 1.11 × 0.81 ≈ 1.33
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.26 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.42 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.41 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.33, λaway = 1.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 PAS Giannina | 45.0% | 56.0% | 51.9% | 47.7% |
| X Draw | 29.4% | 11.0% | 26.1% | 24.0% |
| 2 Eordaikos | 25.6% | 33.0% | 22.0% | 28.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · PAS Giannina | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -17.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -17.9% | |
| 2 · Eordaikos | 28.3% | 3.53 | 4.05 | 24.7% | +14.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 71.7% | 1.39 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -18.3% | |
| X2 | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -2.7% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB PAS Giannina | 62.8% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Eordaikos | 37.2% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -11.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.5% | 3.40 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -5.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -13.5% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -3.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.6% | 3.91 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -19.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -5.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.8% | 2.09 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -14.5% | |
| BTTS no | 52.2% | 1.92 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -3.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.2% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.9% | 4.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.540 × 1.79 − 1 = -0.034 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | PAS Giannina | Eordaikos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLDD | WLWLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: PAS Giannina 48%, draw 24%, Eordaikos 28%. Standings: PAS Giannina 3rd on 11, Eordaikos 6th on 10.
Form
PAS Giannina have three wins from their last six (W W W L D D). Latest: 1–0 away at Naousa. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Eordaikos: W L W L W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–2 at home to Alexandros Florinas. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG PAS Giannina 1.33 · Eordaikos 1.08 · total 2.41. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.79 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: PAS Giannina 1–0 Eordaikos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Gamma Ethniki Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Veria | 6 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 |  Makedonikos Siatista | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 |  PAS Giannina | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 |  Anagennisi Artas | 7 | +4 | 11 |
| 5 |  Doxa Mascholouriou | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 |  Eordaikos | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 |  Alexandros Florinas | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Kastoria | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 |  Naousa | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 |  Thyella Katsikas | 7 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 |  Vatolakkos | 7 | -19 | 1 |
More Gamma Ethniki Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for PAS Giannina vs Eordaikos?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.79 by the bookmakers.
What are the PAS Giannina v Eordaikos probabilities?
PAS Giannina win 48%, draw 24%, Eordaikos win 28%.
What is the most probable score for PAS Giannina vs Eordaikos?
PAS Giannina 1–0 Eordaikos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for PAS Giannina vs Eordaikos?
PAS Giannina 1.33, Eordaikos 1.08 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is PAS Giannina vs Eordaikos?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Gamma Ethniki Group 3.