- λ home
- 1.23
- λ away
- 1.55
- Σλ total
- 2.78
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
PAO Kristoni vs Finikas Polichnis prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
PAO Kristoni v Finikas Polichnis: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for PAO Kristoni v Finikas Polichnis are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAO Kristoni (home) | 1.47 | 1.01 | 0.96 | 1.43 |
| Finikas Polichnis (away) | 1.23 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.43 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.47 × 1.01 × 0.96 ≈ 1.43
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.92 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.54 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.78 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.23, λaway = 1.55
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 PAO Kristoni | 37.0% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 23.0% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 20.0% | 26.0% | 24.7% |
| 2 Finikas Polichnis | 36.9% | 64.0% | 58.7% | 52.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · PAO Kristoni | 23.0% | 4.35 | 5.90 | 16.9% | +35.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -14.9% | |
| 2 · Finikas Polichnis | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -19.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 47.6% | 2.10 | 2.18 | 45.9% | +3.9% | |
| X2 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -13.7% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -6.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB PAO Kristoni | 30.5% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Finikas Polichnis | 69.5% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -3.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -14.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +12.7% | |
| BTTS no | 42.2% | 2.37 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -27.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.8% | 4.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.3% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.9% | 2.95 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.578 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.127 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.134 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | PAO Kristoni | Finikas Polichnis |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDLL | DWWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Finikas Polichnis narrowly ahead at 52%; PAO Kristoni 23%.
Form
Sequence for PAO Kristoni: W W W D L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Panedessaikos. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Finikas Polichnis, last six: D W W L W W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Mpam. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG PAO Kristoni 1.23 · Finikas Polichnis 1.55 · total 2.78. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: PAO Kristoni 1–2 Finikas Polichnis. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for PAO Kristoni vs Finikas Polichnis?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the PAO Kristoni v Finikas Polichnis probabilities?
PAO Kristoni win 23%, draw 25%, Finikas Polichnis win 52%.
What is the most probable score for PAO Kristoni vs Finikas Polichnis?
PAO Kristoni 1–2 Finikas Polichnis is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for PAO Kristoni vs Finikas Polichnis?
PAO Kristoni 1.23, Finikas Polichnis 1.55 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is PAO Kristoni vs Finikas Polichnis?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Gamma Ethniki Group 2.